We are comparing each bull market by taking an aggregate of the days that we have been exploring/discovering new ATHβs aka the most bullish days of #bitcoin when FOMO is at peak levels.
Consolidation is left out since we are interested in measuring each cycle's FOMO strength.
By doing this we find a few very interesting observations:
The strength of each cycle stays remarkably consistent for the entire bull market! It follows a linear path with an uptick at the end.
We had no such uptick yet, a sign that the top is not in? π
It looks like the volatility is being ironed out as well (pointed out by @EvanKyusho). One explanation could be the increase in market participants which causes a more continuous demand.
Stay with me here, we are almost done!
Each historic bull market has seen between 52 and 71 days of exploring new highs. Current cycle we have only seen 28 days! The blue dots on the trendline indicate the mid-cycle consolidation. We had exactly the same amount of days in 2017 before consolidating mid-cycle.
In 2013 we had 19 more days of exploring new highs after the mid-cycle consolidation. In 2017 we had another 43 days.
Since this cycleβs strength is in between and if history rhymes, we have another 19 to 43 days to go (red dots on the 2021 trendline).
If the demand stays consistent, the linear trendline serves as a price floor for the remaining bull market.
The price floor predictions:
equal nb. days as 2013: $142k
equal nb. days as 2017: $392k #Bitcoin#LaserRayUntil100K
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The 4-year cycle is on point!
Each cycle consists of 3 phases. π§΅π
#Bitcoin
2/ The 4-year spiral chart is my go-to for discussing timing in #Bitcoin. The color-coded chart reflects unrealized profit and losses, unveiling cycle patterns.
3/ We're 6 months into the recovery phase/early bull market. Young transactions, aka Short-Term Holders (STH's) offer crucial signals, profoundly impacted by current price action.
I've seen this chart doing the rounds, time to discuss some misconceptions π§΅π
First, let's zoom out to provide some context where we're coming from.
Two things stick out immediately: 1. We really went sideways into this All-Time-High alignment. 2. We're comparing previous pointy blow-off tops to a flat distribution top.
Not saying above chart isn't valid, however it's the most bearish alignment possible and imo an unlikely outcome considering the points just made. Now let's chop through both points in further detail.
Perhaps the most important chart in #Bitcoin currently!
For the past months we've had LTH capitulation β β shown by the rapidly falling LTH Cost Basis.π
An uptick is a first sign that LTHβs might have stopped capitulating! Note: early signal, but finally a change in trend!
Context: The LTH Cost Basis is the average purchase price of all LTH's. While we had STH capitulation earlier this year, the drawdown of past months was mostly caused by LTHβs as the Cost Basis declining means more recent LTH's where selling coins purchased at higher prices.
LTH Spent Price is the average price at which LTH's bought the coins they're currently spending.
There are a limited amount of LTH's that have an average purchase price of 33k, namely the ones that bought in the tops. The question is: did we run out yet?
The past 6 days we did!