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24 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
lOnG vOl fOR thE NExT 1o0 YeArS
It is literally unbelievable to me that you can accurately forecast more or less the exact liquidation of XIV just months before it happens and be up less than 1.5% for the quarter. Deserves a trophy for the worst portfolio implementation of a trade idea in history
Let it be known that Chris has graciously responded to my questions about vehicle structure to a sufficient degree that I consider this beef "squashed". The fund is a small component of assets relative to SMA overlays, which are adjusted to fit the client and perform quite well.
(I do consider the willingness to engage with anonymous trolls on Twitter, many of whom live in basement apartments and drink Leoville-Las Cases because they cannot afford Latour, to be a positive characteristic in an investment manager, so he gets bonus points for that too)

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More from @quantian1

Quantian Profile picture
24 Apr
Alright, T+15 days since shot 2 and we’re doing indoor dining again. To start: a 2014 Egon Müller Scharzhofberger Spätlese
Clockwise from top: blistered shishito peppers, tuna inari pockets, grilled @macrocephalopod, hijiki seaweed salad, and sea trout crudo.
Next: Tempura accoutrements, accompanied by tempura.
Read 5 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
19 Apr
Do NOT start an emerging manager under any circumstances. Do not work for a pre-launch manager without a nine figure seed investor, even if they offer you “equity”, even if they’re super smart, even if you’re getting a base pay raise from your last job. Just don’t do it.
Being an emerging manager is like doing a PhD because you want to be a tenure track professor. It is presented to you as the natural continuation of your path thus far, you have probably interacted only with success stories, and you absolutely, positively, Should. Not. Do. it.
Here is a checklist of conditions to be a EM:
1. Mom/Dad are worth over $10mm
2. You worked for GS/MS/etc
3. You worked for Citadel/etc
4. You personally know 5+ allocators willing to drop $25m+
5. You actually know how to manage a portfolio
That gets you to ~25% success chance
Read 5 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
17 Apr
Ex-FinTwit luminary @BrattleStCap indicted for alleged multimillion dollar PPP fraud: manhattanda.org/d-a-vance-inve…
Borrowing PPP funds to providing trading capital which you subsequently lose. Big disgraced financier energy
Hmmm this is the second person among my first 100 followers to go to jail for securities fraud, along with Martin Shkreli. The remaining 98 should consider yourself ON NOTICE!
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
4 Apr
Here is a to-scale superposition the Shinkansen main line on the USA. Its *entire* rail length would be almost exactly that of a single hypothetical Montreal-Atlanta line. They are adding a direct Tokyo-Osaka link (black) for the low price of $80bn. It will be done in 2045.
You can instead use the TGV, which is like the Shinkansen but full of French people and thus infinitely worse. It maps quite nicely to Texas.
“America is very big, mostly empty, and most people live in one of 3-4 small regions which are dense but also far apart from each other”
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
4 Mar
If you do the work on what would happen if ARK liquidated, you do not get anywhere near what bears imagine. ARKK would be down 5-10% if it went to cash tomorrow, ARKG would be down 7-13%, and all the other funds would be down <5%. 10%-20% of float is big but not *that* big.
Put another way: if you bought 100% of a company's stock via tender, you'd drive up the price by the takeover premium, which is roughly ~30% . Thus, if you buy 20% of a liquid name's float, a first order estimate of your price impact would be ~6%, and selling just unwinds that.
Closing the loop on this: Today ARK had combined outflows of over $600 million, their second-worst flow ever in dollar terms and their third-worst ever as a percentage of asset base. ARKG lagged XBI by -240 bps, and the same model in the above tweet predicted... -234 bps.
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
11 Feb
Inspired by @EricBalchunas: which one of these four US-listed ETPs produced the worst investor return of all time, in dollar terms?
The answer is "n/a", my original query was wrong, but of the four options shown it's AMLP with a -$9.2 billion loss. VXX is only -$8.8bn, then DBC is a mere -$3.7bn and GDX outside top 25 with -$2.1bn. Also, XIV is +$2bn over its lifetime, which is in the top 5% of all ETPs!
Note this is technically 20-year investor total returns, not inception to date, but for basically every ETF except SPY and QQQ that's the same thing. Code to generate:
Read 4 tweets

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