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4 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Here is a to-scale superposition the Shinkansen main line on the USA. Its *entire* rail length would be almost exactly that of a single hypothetical Montreal-Atlanta line. They are adding a direct Tokyo-Osaka link (black) for the low price of $80bn. It will be done in 2045.
You can instead use the TGV, which is like the Shinkansen but full of French people and thus infinitely worse. It maps quite nicely to Texas.
“America is very big, mostly empty, and most people live in one of 3-4 small regions which are dense but also far apart from each other”
Also if you want to spend money in America, you have at most 7 years for people to see tangible benefits and it to become popular before you’re out and the GOP kills it to cut taxes more. Japan will have a continuous LDP government from now until 2045 when it’s done!

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Quantian Profile picture
4 Mar
If you do the work on what would happen if ARK liquidated, you do not get anywhere near what bears imagine. ARKK would be down 5-10% if it went to cash tomorrow, ARKG would be down 7-13%, and all the other funds would be down <5%. 10%-20% of float is big but not *that* big.
Put another way: if you bought 100% of a company's stock via tender, you'd drive up the price by the takeover premium, which is roughly ~30% . Thus, if you buy 20% of a liquid name's float, a first order estimate of your price impact would be ~6%, and selling just unwinds that.
Closing the loop on this: Today ARK had combined outflows of over $600 million, their second-worst flow ever in dollar terms and their third-worst ever as a percentage of asset base. ARKG lagged XBI by -240 bps, and the same model in the above tweet predicted... -234 bps.
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
11 Feb
Inspired by @EricBalchunas: which one of these four US-listed ETPs produced the worst investor return of all time, in dollar terms?
The answer is "n/a", my original query was wrong, but of the four options shown it's AMLP with a -$9.2 billion loss. VXX is only -$8.8bn, then DBC is a mere -$3.7bn and GDX outside top 25 with -$2.1bn. Also, XIV is +$2bn over its lifetime, which is in the top 5% of all ETPs!
Note this is technically 20-year investor total returns, not inception to date, but for basically every ETF except SPY and QQQ that's the same thing. Code to generate:
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
17 Jan
Since she’s now officially the Main Character on here today, I’m amazed at how perfect an avatar this lady is for Econ Brain. Between her Narcan paper and her Ban the Box (can’t screen out nonviolent criminals before job interview itself), it’s a very clear pattern.
Step 1: Someone complains about [current societal outcome] and proposes [intervention] to fix it. You like CSO (or dislike funding I), but since CSO is seen as bad by normal people, you can’t directly argue It’s Good, Actually, since you work somewhere more respectable than GMU.
Step 2: Say “Look, we ALL agree CSO is bad, we just disagree on how to best address the problem! Let’s study it and find out.” Now, take a $5mm grant from the Definitely Not Causing CSO At All Charitable Trust to study it in depth [ed: This is where you underpay your RAs]
Read 8 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
26 Nov 20
Cooking eight ounces of A5 wagyu for myself
Came out perfect though... sous vide for 45 mins at 135 F, daub dry and stick in the fridge for 10 mins, then sear for 45 sec in a skillet
Two normal bottles, and one adorable tiny 150mL one, per person
Read 7 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
21 Nov 20
We’ve moved to winecon 1- one step below global thermonuclear war. Not pictured: magnum of ‘07 Beaucastel CNDP. Image
Is six bottles enough for three people? I hope so!
One down, four to go! ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
20 Nov 20
It's been a while since I've done one of these, but on paper many of you are following me (why?) because of quant finance tweets, so let me do a rambling stream-of-consciousness apologia for the most hated "model" in finance, the Black-Scholes model.
Specifically, the idea of IV. Like "imaginary numbers", it's an unfortunate misnomer, because it makes people think there must be *some* link between IV and historical vol. This is not the case. A better term might be something like "σ-price" vs. "$-price": it's a price.
Option prices trend in predictable ways: a near-term option will always be cheaper than a long-term one, simply because the long-term one includes the near term one. Similarly, ITM options are always more expensive than OTM options, because they contain the OTM option as well.
Read 24 tweets

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