1/ Epidemiology Lesson, short 🧵:
In a conversation today, someone said:
“Our experience is that 10 infections quickly grow to 100’s...[If you are testing to control spread] you have to be close to perfect”
It seems that way - but it’s not true at all.
1/x
In a conversation today, someone said:
“Our experience is that 10 infections quickly grow to 100’s...[If you are testing to control spread] you have to be close to perfect”
It seems that way - but it’s not true at all.
1/x
2/x
To limit spread and stop outbreaks you fo not need perfection. This is the great thing about outbreaks...
They either grow exponentially... or they fall exponentially. That’s why we see sharp spikes all the time, like this in the US.
2/x
To limit spread and stop outbreaks you fo not need perfection. This is the great thing about outbreaks...
They either grow exponentially... or they fall exponentially. That’s why we see sharp spikes all the time, like this in the US.
2/x
To stop outbreaks from arising or to cause out of control outbreaks to fall, we only need to ensure:
for every 10 new cases that occur, they cause 9 new cases (or fewer)
We don’t need 10 to infect 0, we just need 10 to infect 9. If we do that...
3/
for every 10 new cases that occur, they cause 9 new cases (or fewer)
We don’t need 10 to infect 0, we just need 10 to infect 9. If we do that...
3/
If 10 cases cause 9 new infections (sounds like a failure of a public health program, right??), then after 4 weeks there will be a 90% reduction in cases compared to when 10 cases cause just 13 new infections.
Massive difference. Outbreaks rise or fall on a razors edge.
4/4
Massive difference. Outbreaks rise or fall on a razors edge.
4/4
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