The models we build depend on the stories we want to tell and the questions we want to answer.
The most important of building the model is figuring out the question we are trying to answer.
Do that first before you start with Excel.
Our ability to generate scenarios for stress testing and sensitivity analysis is limited by acceptable and common ranges.
Understanding the distribution of drivers we are modeling can lead to richer and far more appropriate scenarios.
While most model builders are comfortable with putting together a balance sheet and income statement, quite a few struggle with statement of cash flows. If they can or could, they would skip it.
You can't balance your balance sheet or pass model cross checks without one.
Be clear about the lens you are using. Short term or long term?
Quite possible and common to be completely wrong with one and absolutely on the money with the other.
Resolving circular references is just like getting rid of recursion in your code.
And if you play with circular references enough, you will ultimately get hit by the curse of #REF errors.
Try resolving that on a multi tab sheet.
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Here is what we are doing on 2nd Jun in Financial Modeling for Founders Workshop.
Day 1. Session 1.
Maya's Closet. Case Study.
Analyzing Growth in the middle of a pandemic Validating assumptions
Modeling growth
Dry run of Maya expansion model
Modeling downside.
Day 2. Session 2.
Maya continued.
Adding complexity and sophistication
Revenue drivers for an e-commerce business
Stress testing and scenario analysis
Using the distribution for stress scenarios
Founder models meet banking models.
Day 3. Session 3.
GEMS School Systems. A private equity case study.
The questions you want to answer?
Modeling GEMS's outlook
Sophisticated drivers, sophisticated models.
Modeling Debt Schedules. Fixed Asset Schedules.
Thou Shall not do? Rules to live by.
What does it take to run the mile in less than 9 minutes?
Not a lot if you are a fit 30 year old runner or fitness professional. Malcolm Gladwell the 57 year old author of Outliers ran it in 5:15 earlier this week beating out a much younger field.
One would think it's easy?
That depends on what your comparative peer group is? 50 year old Pakistani men?
60 year Boston Qualifier who have run the Boston Marathon every year for the last few years?