If you have kids who want to work for health care make them read The Premonition.

If you are interested in how the world ended where it is today on account of Covid-19, read The Premonition.

Premonition does to CDC what Lewis earlier works did to SEC, Banking and Moody S&P.
The book is not just about Covid or US response to the pandemic.

It's a very worthy and relevant read at so many different levels.

How a small group of individuals can still impact global health, how we got to the vaccine so quickly and the future of the health care industry.
@dingramerm we need to bring the Mann Gulch incident and the fire escape fire into the @SOActuaries ERM curriculum.

Maybe even get Lewis to come and speak at the next annual conference.
Personally I took some key lessons from the book.

A group of focused individuals can not just change the destiny of their country but also of the world.

Making it possible for @moderna_tx to fast track Phase II and III trials was the best ROI on a billion dollars.
The ICU physician checklist and the regret minimization framework in the ICU world.

What do I need to do now, that if I don't, I would regret the most looking back from the future.

And having things to do, a checklist to avoid panic and maintain a semblance of control.
The relationship between R_naught and herd immunity.

Michael Lewis explained herd immunity in a few words something that I had difficulty understanding over the last 18 months.

How the first Covid death meant that a region already had 200 infected cases walking around.
The Mann Gulch fire, exponential escalation and the escape fire.

At 5:45 the fire was moving at 1.2 miles/hr.

At 5:55 it was at 7 miles/hr across the grassland.

At 5:56 10 of 15 were dead.

The only survivor lit a escape fire to escape the wall of fire coming at him.
Group think will kill you.

@Sheena_Iyengar first showed this to us in the Organization Behavior course at @Columbia_Biz with the O-Ring case study and the Challenger disaster.

Mann Gulch just reinforced it.

My favorite line in the entire book.

We are at 5:45pm right now.
The Genomics chip and the traceable trail left by viral mutations.

Note down this name. Joe DeRisi at @czbiohub

If you work in healthcare or if you want to think about where the field is heading, read up and follow everything Joe and his team at Biohub are doing.
Also no good deed in the world will go unpunished.

Specially if you work for the state.
Covid-19 has swept the world in a wave of tragedy, grief and loss. Didn't spare friends, family or loved ones.

While the book won't gave us closure, it will certainly go a long way for a lot of people in helping them make sense of this new world we will live in.
Michael Lewis, I wish you were on @Twitter.

Thank you once again for a lovely, readable guide to a complex tragedy.

Always appreciated.

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More from @rebootdude

27 May
On incorporating Monte Carlo Simulation in your Excel models.

A thread. On request from @_QuratUlAin_

Remember our friendly e-commerce store that shared its live data for our growth in a pandemic series?

How or why should we add simulation to our growth analysis model?
Simulation does the same thing generating the distribution did for us.

It makes it possible for us to come with a broader range of values for stress testing and scenario analysis.

Our ability to do that is limited by our imagination and world view. Simulations broadens it up.
If you are a brand new venture with no prior data, numbers or figures but have industry benchmark and metrics, simulation is a good starting point.

When used correctly it can give you a range to work with for your model.
Read 31 tweets
27 May
Here is what we are doing on 2nd Jun in Financial Modeling for Founders Workshop.

Day 1. Session 1.
Maya's Closet. Case Study.

Analyzing Growth in the middle of a pandemic Validating assumptions
Modeling growth
Dry run of Maya expansion model
Modeling downside. Image
Day 2. Session 2.
Maya continued.

Adding complexity and sophistication
Revenue drivers for an e-commerce business
Stress testing and scenario analysis
Using the distribution for stress scenarios
Founder models meet banking models. Image
Day 3. Session 3.
GEMS School Systems. A private equity case study.

The questions you want to answer?
Modeling GEMS's outlook
Sophisticated drivers, sophisticated models.
Modeling Debt Schedules. Fixed Asset Schedules.
Thou Shall not do? Rules to live by. Image
Read 10 tweets
26 May
Lessons today from our financial modeling workshop.

Building models is not enough, we also have to calibrate them to ensure that they behave well under a range of assumptions.

Relationships between model drivers are often set in a superficial manner. Which leads to challenges.
Give your self time to test and calibrate models.

Plug in extreme values to see if the model holds.

Identify expected behavior for a multiple data points and see if your model reproduces that when fed the right data. Image
User expectations also need to be calibrated.

Educate users on model behavior so they know that it can be broken, that it doesn't always give the right answers.

Walk them through anticipated results so you can also calibrate their expectations.
Read 10 tweets
26 May
Mile time trial this morning.

What gets measured improves. Still a long way to go but it's a start.

Thank you @Gladwell
What does it take to run the mile in less than 9 minutes?

Not a lot if you are a fit 30 year old runner or fitness professional. Malcolm Gladwell the 57 year old author of Outliers ran it in 5:15 earlier this week beating out a much younger field.

One would think it's easy?
That depends on what your comparative peer group is? 50 year old Pakistani men?

60 year Boston Qualifier who have run the Boston Marathon every year for the last few years?

The middle distance team of Kazakhstan?

Or a younger you from a three years earlier?
Read 5 tweets
25 May
From today's session on Financial Modeling.

The models we build depend on the stories we want to tell and the questions we want to answer.

The most important of building the model is figuring out the question we are trying to answer.

Do that first before you start with Excel.
Our ability to generate scenarios for stress testing and sensitivity analysis is limited by acceptable and common ranges.

Understanding the distribution of drivers we are modeling can lead to richer and far more appropriate scenarios.
While most model builders are comfortable with putting together a balance sheet and income statement, quite a few struggle with statement of cash flows. If they can or could, they would skip it.

You can't balance your balance sheet or pass model cross checks without one.
Read 5 tweets
25 May
Breakthrough performance, when you improve a personal best, is difficult.

Consistent breakthrough performance two months in a row, is an even bigger feat.

While luck may play a role in the former, for the latter you need a process.

The first time may be an accident.
When evaluating ability or capacity for breaking records, take a look at how strong the underlying process is.

If you can find the process, you are in good shape.

If you can't find the process, don't expect miracles.

Taleb calls it the generator function for prices.
Understand what drives prices in financial markets.

Understand what drives performance in the metrics you are trying to measure.

Then put a process around your understanding.

Founder maturity is accepting performance comes from processes, not luck or talent.
Read 4 tweets

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