I remembered that NHS England publish daily admissions data at regional level, so here's what those numbers look like.
Admissions have started to rise in the Midlands and North of England, and bed occupancy and ventilator use have risen in the NW. But the numbers are small.
Admissions have started to rise in the Midlands and North of England, and bed occupancy and ventilator use have risen in the NW. But the numbers are small.
What happens next depends on three things (I think):
1) Do cases in areas with high case rates just now spread into older age groups
2) Do vaccines lead to fewer admissions and deaths even if cases do spread to older age groups
3)Do cases start to rise widely elsewhere
1) Do cases in areas with high case rates just now spread into older age groups
2) Do vaccines lead to fewer admissions and deaths even if cases do spread to older age groups
3)Do cases start to rise widely elsewhere
I'm not going to make predictions, but I'm still not too pessimistic.
R code for these plots is here:
github.com/VictimOfMaths/…
github.com/VictimOfMaths/…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
