THREAD: What should we make of the news that the Manhattan DA has convened a grand jury in his office's investigation of Donald Trump and his business?
1/ Today the @washingtonpost reported that Manhattan DA Cy Vance has convened a grand jury and that this grand jury may eventually consider whether to indict Trump and/or his associates or businesses.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
2/ A grand jury is just a group of ordinary people chosen at random who hear evidence presented to them by prosecutors.
Prosecutors have the authority to issue subpoenas for documents and testimony as part of their grand jury investigation.
Prosecutors have the authority to issue subpoenas for documents and testimony as part of their grand jury investigation.
3/ The mere fact that a special grand jury was empaneled does not mean that any particular person will be charged. It does not necessarily mean that Trump himself will be charged.
But it is fair to say that Vance's investigation is far along and that charges are on the horizon.
But it is fair to say that Vance's investigation is far along and that charges are on the horizon.
4/ This is the second sign in recent days that Vance's investigation has entered the home stretch.
Recently, NY AG Tish James announced that her office would investigate Trump "along" with the Manhattan DA. This just means that some of her staff are joining the DA's effort.
Recently, NY AG Tish James announced that her office would investigate Trump "along" with the Manhattan DA. This just means that some of her staff are joining the DA's effort.
5/ Reports suggest that the investigation is expansive and includes potential tax charges and false statements in financial statements.
This is consistent with reports that Vance is investigating others within the Trump Organization, such as long-time CFO Allen Weisselberg.
This is consistent with reports that Vance is investigating others within the Trump Organization, such as long-time CFO Allen Weisselberg.
6/ Whenever I investigated tax or fraud cases, the case came down to whether we had sufficient proof of the defendant's knowledge of the false statements contained in the documents.
That state of mind is what distinguishes fraud from a mere mistake. A slip-up is not fraud.
That state of mind is what distinguishes fraud from a mere mistake. A slip-up is not fraud.
7/ Fraud is just when you lie to people to get their money. So the case usually comes down to whether the defendant knew the statements in the documents were false.
It's easier to prove knowledge for people involved in preparing or authorizing the documents, like Weisselberg.
It's easier to prove knowledge for people involved in preparing or authorizing the documents, like Weisselberg.
8/ So don't be surprised if people like Weisselberg are their initial target, to induce him or others to flip.
Someone like Trump or his children will only have liability if they knew of the false statements and participated in the scheme in some way or moved it forward somehow.
Someone like Trump or his children will only have liability if they knew of the false statements and participated in the scheme in some way or moved it forward somehow.
9/ It looks like the DA is moving quickly, and today's announcement and the AG's recent decision to publicly join the criminal investigation suggests the investigation is in an advanced stage.
But charges could be months away, and we don't know who will be named first. /end
But charges could be months away, and we don't know who will be named first. /end
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