Thread by @trbrtc

In March, insurgents besieged Palma, a town north of a multi-billion dollar gas project in Mozambique. Using survivor testimonies, video, satellite images and ship-tracking data, we reconstructed an attack which many felt wasn't a question of if, but when. nytimes.com/video/world/af…

Known as al-Shabaab, the insurgents have been active in the northern Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Its recruitment is mostly local, drawing on grievances over poverty and corruption. The group pledged allegiance to Islamic State, but how close these ties are is hotly debated.

The attack on Palma is one of many — over 600,000 people have been displaced as the insurgents gained territory. But the Mozambican government downplays the threat, exaggerating its own response and harassing local journalists. We see that pattern again in Palma.

What's different in Palma is that it's next to a multi-billion dollar natural gas project — Africa's largest foreign direct investment. Hailed as a massive new revenue source, but also controversial, in part, because it displaced many local villages. news.mongabay.com/2021/04/gas-fi…

The gas project is the main reason why more info and visuals come out when insurgents advance on Palma on March 24. By corroborating survivor testimonies and a military statement, we know the insurgents quickly take control of the coast and all key roads leading into town.

Seemingly unaware of the ongoing attack on Palma, a plane comes under fire as it is trying to land at the town's airstrip. The video, obtained and verified by @nytimes, offers a rare glimpse of the insurgents. The plane managed to gain altitude to safety.

Government forces in Palma retreat quickly after some try but fail to fight off the insurgents, eyewitnesses tell us. As news spread, thousands of people flee. The chaos is captured in this @civilinfomoz video, geolocated by @il_kanguru to the main street.

Mozambique’s security forces are poorly trained and extremely under-resourced. But the government also downplays the threat of the insurgents, exaggerates its own response and repeatedly harasses local journalists reporting on the conflict.

In response to the Palma attack, the Mozambican Defense Ministry said the actions of their forces “resulted in the evacuation of hundreds of people“ and “prevented the vandalization of infrastructure.” Let's have closer look at those claims. nytimes.com/video/world/af…

First, infrastructure. We satellite imagery and footage from the aftermath of thee attack to confirm damage to key infrastructure — including the town's BCI and Standard Banks, the district administrative building, as well as police and prosecutor's offices.

It's worth pointing out that the Mozambican security forces have little to no control in Palma for a couple of days. Several buildings were set on fire only a few days into attack, such as the Palma Business Park (first photo is late March, second photo is April 2).

Second, evacuations. Two Mi-24 helicopter gunships and one Mi-8M/Mi-17 transport helicopter were moved to the gas project's airstrip, @Maxar satellite imagery shows — but they only fly in once and do not appear to play any further role in evacuations or firing at insurgents.

Instead, the evacuations that did happen were conducted by several private companies. Some of these evacuations made global headlines, while others went unnoticed. (Most people that fled were *not* evacuated, but more on that later.)

Most aerial evacuations are conducted Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), a private military company contracted by the Mozambican police to help fight the insurgency. (DAG has been accused of committing war crimes in 2020 by Amnesty International, including bombing a hospital.)

DAG claims they airlifted 240 people to safety from multiple locations over a period of 10 days. (Based on visual evidence and interviews, we can confirm at least 5 locations and dozens of individuals.)

A major obstacle for these evacuations? Refueling. Evacuees are dropped off at the gas site's airstrip, just 5 miles south of Palma. But multiple sources tell us @Total is refusing to provide DAG with fuel, forcing the choppers to fly at least 85 miles further.

Aerial resources are stretched even thinner as DAG choppers can only carry a handful of people and are also doing what they were hired for: fighting insurgents. (The evacuations were conducted on their own without any clear instruction from the government, DAG claims.)

All of this is evident at the Amarula Hotel, where 173 shelter alongside 49 guests. 4 DAG airlifts could evacuate only 22-24 people — a mix of a government official and his family, local businessmen, foreign contractors, and some women and children. More: nytimes.com/video/world/af…

There is one last rescue — by Everett Aviation. It's chartered by the hotel owner to take out a handful of employees, including the hotel manager, and her two dogs. Those left behind discuss that flight as they load into cars to escape on their own. Their convoy will be ambushed.

The large majority of people in Palma were left to fend for themselves. Some tried to cross the Tanzanian border, or went on foot and by bus to other towns in the province. Others are still unaccounted for after fleeing into the bush.

Tens of thousands went to the gas site, where some government security was still present, and where access to a secure coastline meant a better chance of escape. Ricardo Elias Dário was among them. He’s from Sofala province, working in Palma for a cargo and transport company.

Meanwhile, there was an evacuation being mounted at the gas site — mostly for Total employees. The company chartered the Sea Star 1, a passenger ferry that usually operates off the coast of Tanzania. It's seen here docked at the Afungi peninsula.

We also spotted another vessel in satellite imagery that stood out for its unique shape. It’s an Ocean Eagle 43, a patrol and surveillance vessel used by the Mozambican government. An image from Facebook shows the Ocean Eagle alongside the ferry, appearing to provide protection.

This vessel is one of the few signs of government action in Palma. It helps the Sea Star, carrying mostly Total employees, escape along with a group of other mostly private boats, @MarineTraffic data shows.

Many believed these other private ships were mounting a “Dunkirkian” rescue from Palma. This appears to be untrue — we were told that several were too small to carry significant passengers and were already active in the area. They likely fled as a group for safety.

The Sea Star 1 made two trips — taking more locals the second time. Dozens of @Total contractors and subcontractors were left behind. Some told @nytimes that Total has not inquired about the safety of their staff or equipment. Total has since suspended its operations in Palma.

We're two months later, and aid organizations still struggle to get food aid into Palma as government forces insist on distributing it.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery courtesy of @Maxar reveals *new* fire damage to at least 50 buildings in Palma — showing the town is all but safe. And people continue to flee, to the coast, to the border.

https://twitter.com/il_kanguru/status/1387440311576715267

This piece is the culmination of almost a year reporting on the violence in Mozambique. Thanks to: @heytherehaIey, @_stella_cooper, @cegoldbaum, @bottidavid, Danielle Miller and Aaron Byrd, with contributions from @johnismay, @gianordoli, @malachybrowne and @ckoettl.

We are incredibly grateful to those who worked with or spoke to us — survivors of the attack, local journalists and translators, humanitarian groups and volunteers, online sleuths, and experts covering Mozambique and extremist groups: @TavaresCebola, Estacio Valoi...

...Ricardo Elias Dario @wesnel1999 Joana Mota @Jasminechic00 @PiersPigou @samratner @ACLEDINFO @UNmigration VAMOZ @WFP @MSF Justiça Ambiental @Brian_Castner @mediabridge_ @ryanmofarrell @p_vanostaeyen @il_kanguru @obretix @AKMcKeever @petchmo @sierrrd and many who can't be named.

For more from the Visual Investigations team, which will continue to monitor the situation in Mozambique, you can go to our landing page: nytimes.com/spotlight/visu…

Last but not least, the video is also available to watch on YouTube: