On @euronews today commenting on major crisis in #EU - #Swiss relations.

Interview by great @Brusselsness

👇 🧵on why this breakdown & what next, in 8 points
1/ This is obviously sovereignty vs economy all over again.
 
Swiss focus on freedom of movement, “benefit tourism”, pressure on wages & “foreign judges”
 
I think🇨🇭have bad case- EU has been accommodating & numbers don’t add up to problems they pretend. But again, it’s politics.
2/ For 🇪🇺, final sign🇨🇭gov not ready for fair single market settlement w/ EU.
 
Benefits more than anyone, gives little in return. Single market adds €2900 to every Swiss/year, costs €14
 
Biggest problem lack uniform application of rules (incl. state aid) for single market LPF
3/ Institutional Framework Agreement (IFA) was last-gasp attempt to put relations on sustainable footing & pave way for further market access.
 
Yet, despite admissions to sovereignty concerns🇨🇭government never signed, let alone defended agreement. And been coming back for more
4/ #Brexit “envy” plays part. Many Swiss suspicious onlookers to EU-UK negotiations w/ TCA wrongly seen as better deal (eg state aid)
 
This argument has no merit. Brexit is UK full departure from single market. What Swiss wanted & at stake in IFA, was precisely to remain within.
5/ What happens now? Economically it’s only a slow death.
 
Economies will uncouple at speed of single market not being updated (mutual recognition, agriculture, electricity).

Biggest loser🇨🇭as EU = 50% of their foreign trade (Swiss = 8% of EU’s)
6/ Politically, much more explosive. 🇪🇺 has nothing more to give.
 
🇨🇭are asking for privileges EU members don’t get. Must also look to EEA & difficult 🇬🇧relations
 
Big test will be #HorizonEurope. In common interest, but not sustainable as CH withholds money & breaks out of IFA
7/ But🇨🇭face the really fundamental problems & choices now. What future with 🇪🇺?
 
IFA had robust support in population (>60%). But also EEA and EU-UK or EU-Canada type agreements (~60%).
 
So this is all open. Will be long and #difficult.
8/ Final question asked by @Brusselsness : is this the definitive end to Switzerland’s single market #freelunch ?

”Yes."

Paper forthcoming @epc_eu.

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