Today in the #AtlanticBubble

The home stretch

48 new cases were reported in the region: 6 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 9 in New Brunswick, and 33 in Nova Scotia.

13/15 outside of NS were traced at the time of reporting.

There are now 874 known, active cases in the region. ImageImageImageImage
PEI reported now new cases today, but did announce their plan to wind-down their pandemic related restrictions in the coming weeks and months (more on that later).

There are now 10 known, active cases in PEI. ImageImageImage
NL reported 6 new cases today:

1 in the Western health region (under investigation)

1 in the Eastern health region (travel-related)

4 in the Central health region (3 close contacts linked to the ongoing cluster, and 1 travel-related)

There are now 89 known, active cases in NL ImageImageImageImage
Updated cases per capita map with the Central health region emphasized.

Still going up, but I suspect this will bend in the near future (new and presumptive cases are drying up) Image
NB reported 9 new cases:

3 in Moncton (2 close contacts, 1 travel-related)

5 in Fredericton (4 close contacts, 1 travel-related)

1 in Bathurst (under investigation)

There are now 137 known, active cases in NB. ImageImageImageImage
Updated cases per capita timeline with Fredericton emphasized.

NB also announced it's end game timeline for the pandemic (more on that in a bit) Image
NS reported 33 new cases today:

None in the Western zone

1 in the Northern zone

18 in the Eastern zone

14 in the Halifax area (Central zone)

There are now 638 known, active cases in NS. ImageImageImageImage
NS Outbreak Detailed:

Restrictions/case levels map

Case origins timeline

Cases per capita timeline with Halifax emphasized

Comparison of Halifax outbreak wind-down to the worst outbreak in each health region in the country (scaled peak-to-peak) ImageImageImageImage
No update in the map tonight.

By a narrow margin, The Halifax area is no longer the province's hotspot of cases (in per capita terms); The Eastern zone is.

Two and a half weeks out from the peak, cases are down nearly 80% in Halifax.

Provincial re-opening plan tomorrow. Image
Updated test numbers for NS.

Let's bump these rookie numbers up and close out this outbreak the right way. ImageImageImage
Regional Summary

NB: Fredericton seems generally controlled. Have announced end-of-pandemic plan.

NS: Rapid progress, announcing plan tomorrow.

NL: getting Central outbreak in hand.

PEI: All quiet, re-opening plan announced. Image
You can read the NB plan summary here: www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en…

And the PEI one here: princeedwardisland.ca/en/news/provin…

My summary: both provinces are essentially following this trajectory

1) Lift internal restrictions
2) Lift Atlantic travel restrictions
3) Lift more travel restrictions
That's a gross over-simplification, just read the plan summaries.

Modified travel restrictions (testing, shorter isolation) seem like they will be in place for unvaccinated travellers through to the end of the summer.
You can see the entire pandemic timeline for the Atlantic region and surrounding area in the animation.

Each tick is a week since the start of the pandemic in March of last year.
Vaccine Roll-Out Metrics

1st graph shows how many days since each province had enough doses to cover their current usage.

2nd graph shows percent of eligible population that is newly vaccinated each day

3rd graph shows days ahead/behind versus national average ImageImageImage
This animation shows each province's vaccination pace as a percent of the pace they need to each 80% first dose coverage by the end of June (based on how many they have already vaccinated and how much time is left).

Older data becomes less visible over time.
Here is the current percent of the eligible population of each province covered by at least one vaccine dose (Territories shown in the 2nd graph). ImageImage
Graph shows actual first dose coverage (blue) compared to a charitable maximum (green) that accounts for previously given 2nd doses and gives a 5-day grace period on deliveries.

Provinces are sorted from smallest (good) to largest (bad) gap between actual/potential coverage. Image
Nightly quick look at how the rest of the country is doing.

NS hasn't quite caught up with Quebec in the great race to the bottom, but almost.

Manitoba may have found it's peak, but they've faked us out before. ImageImage
This weekend (probably Sunday during the day) I'll be doing my usual monthly epi-summary for the whole country.

And as always there will be a bonus analysis; this time: looking at what predicts how many outbreak events a health region has had, and how long they take to resolve. ImageImage
That's it for tonight's update.

Take care of one another and have a great night!

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More from @WilsonKM2

30 May
The Great Big Canadian Pandemic Summary Thread (3rd edition)

The 3rd wave in Canada is winding down.

As usual, there will be 2 parts: 1 summarizing each of the provinces and territories, and 1 custom analysis looking at determinants.
All the summaries have a common format. The grey shading in the background is the range of the lowest to highest per capita rate for the country.

The colour-shading is the same at the provincial level, and the line just shows the overall provincial rate. ImageImage
BC's 3rd wave has more or less wound down, having hit it's peak in early/mid-April.

Deaths ticked up a little, but definitely nowhere near as much as pre-vaccine roll-out (this will be a recurring theme) ImageImageImageImage
Read 47 tweets
29 May
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

52 new cases were reported in the region: 9 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 10 in New Brunswick, and 33 in Nova Scotia.

4 new deaths were reported, making the regional total 133.

There are now 821 known, active cases in the region. ImageImageImageImage
It's the weekend, so I'm reporting test numbers.

Test positivity in the region is down to 0.76% for the week. ImageImage
PEI didn't update their numbers today, leaving them with 12 known, active cases. ImageImageImage
Read 24 tweets
28 May
NS reported 40 new cases today:

2 in the Western zone

4 in the Northern zone

5 in the Eastern zone

29 in the Halifax area (Central zone)

1 new death was reported in the Halifax area, bringing the provincial total to 80.

There are now 585 known, active cases in NS. ImageImageImageImage
NS Outbreak Detailed:

Restrictions/case levels map

Case origins timeline

Cases per capita timeline with Halifax emphasized

Comparison of Halifax outbreak wind-down to the worst outbreak in each health region in the country (scaled peak-to-peak) ImageImageImageImage
Halifax ticked down another level on the map.

NS released summer re-opening plan today: novascotia.ca/coronavirus/do…

It looks a lot like the NB and PEI plans from yesterday, save with the extra steps of exiting restrictions from the current outbreak.
Read 12 tweets
28 May
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

65 new cases were reported in the region today: 2 in PEI, 9 in New Brunswick, 14 in Newfoundland and Labrador, and 40 in Nova Scotia.

1 new death was reported, bringing the regional total to 129.

There are now 932 known, active cases in the region ImageImageImageImage
PEI reported 2 new cases today:

Both were related to travel and both were detected during routine testing in isolation.

There are now 12 known, active cases in PEI. ImageImageImage
NL reported 14 new cases today:

1 in the Western health region (travel-related)

2 in the Eastern region (1 travel-related, 1 close contact)

11 in the Central zone (10 close contacts, 1 under investigation)

There are now 96 known, active cases in NL. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
19 Apr
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

30 new cases were reported in the region today: 3 each in PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador, 9 in New Brunswick, and 15 in Nova Scotia.

25/30 were traced at the time of reporting.

There are now 259 known, active cases in Atlantic Canada.
PEI reported 3 new cases today, all related to travel.

Due to the large number or travel-related cases, PEI has announced that effective immediately it is closing borders to non-resident travelers from outside the Atlantic region

There are now 13 known, active cases in PEI.
NL reported 3 new cases as well: 1 travel-related case in the Eastern health region and 2 in the Western region (one travel-related and 1 close contact of an existing case).

There are now 25 known, active cases in NL.
Read 23 tweets
18 Apr
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

24 new cases were reported in the region: 3 in PEI, 4 in Newfoundland and Labrador*, 7 in Nova Scotia, and 10 in New Brunswick.

20/24 were traced at time of reporting (needs improvement).

There are now 234 known, active cases in the region.
PEI reported 3 new cases today, all related to travel.

Among them is a child under the age of 10 who has been admitted to hospital (PEI's 2nd pandemic hospitalization).

The first hospitalization from earlier in the week is now in ICU.

Now 10 known, active cases in PEI.
Here's hoping for a speedy recovery for the two people in hospital in PEI.
Read 21 tweets

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