Thread by @WilsonKM2

Today in the #AtlanticBubble

52 new cases were reported in the region: 9 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 10 in New Brunswick, and 33 in Nova Scotia.

4 new deaths were reported, making the regional total 133.

There are now 821 known, active cases in the region.

It's the weekend, so I'm reporting test numbers.

Test positivity in the region is down to 0.76% for the week.

PEI didn't update their numbers today, leaving them with 12 known, active cases.

PEI's test positivity rate this week was 0.04%

NL reported 9 new cases:

1 in the Central health region (travel-related)

2 in the Eastern region (travel-related)

6 in the Western region (all close contacts of existing cases)

There are now 100 known, active cases in NL.

NL's test positivity rate this week was 1.05%

NB reported 10 new cases today:

5 in Moncton (3 close contacts, 2 under investigation)

4 in Fredericton (2 close contacts, 2 under investigation)

1 in Bathurst (travel-related)

There are now 143 known, active cases in NB.

Weirdly off day for contact tracing in NB (happens periodically).

There are a pair of exposure notifications for the Fredericton and Moncton areas, both of which are periodically generating small numbers of untraced cases at time of reporting.

No big trends, though.

NB's test positivity rate for the week was 0.83%

NS reported 33 new cases today:

2 in the Northern zone

3 in the Western zone

7 in the Eastern zone

21 in the Halifax area (Central zone)

4 new deaths were reported (3 in Halifax and 1 in Western), making the provincial total 84 and today the deadliest day in over a year.

There are now 566 known, active cases in NS.

NS Outbreak Detailed:

Restrictions/case levels map

Case origins timeline

Cases per capita timeline with Halifax emphasized

Comparison of Halifax outbreak wind-down to the worst outbreak in each health region in the country (scaled peak-to-peak)

Eastern zone ticked down a level on the map. Halifax *might* do so tomorrow.

20 days out from the peak, Halifax running average of cases is now down a bit more than 80%

Case numbers seem reliably low enough that the province should probably start reporting on tracing returns.

The test positivity rate for NS was 0.83% this week, the exact same as New Brunswick's

Regional Summary

NB: Low case levels but some untraced cases in Moncton/Fredericton

NS: Ongoing improvement

NL: Central outbreak may have peaked. Some presumptive cases in Western (TBD)

PEI: All quiet.

You can see the entire pandemic timeline for the Atlantic region and surrounding area in the animation.

Each tick is a week since the start of the pandemic in March of last year.

Vaccine Roll-Out Metrics

1st graph shows how many days since each province had enough doses to cover their current usage.

2nd graph shows percent of eligible population that is newly vaccinated each day

3rd graph shows days ahead/behind versus national average

This animation shows each province's vaccination pace as a percent of the pace they need to each 80% first dose coverage by the end of June (based on how many they have already vaccinated and how much time is left).

Older data becomes less visible over time.

Here is the current percent of the eligible population of each province covered by at least one vaccine dose (Territories shown in the 2nd graph).

Graph shows actual first dose coverage (blue) compared to a charitable maximum (green) that accounts for previously given 2nd doses and gives a 5-day grace period on deliveries.

Provinces are sorted from smallest (good) to largest (bad) gap between actual/potential coverage.

Nightly quick look at how the rest of the country is doing.

NS has now dropped below the case rate of Quebec as all the provinces that experienced 3rd wave outbreaks race to lower levels (at widely varying rates).

Restrictions are going to start to be lifted in NS this coming week.

Goal: Have the quietest, most drama-free re-opening ever.

Our biggest weakness as a province: we don't know what we don't know.

The best thing we can do to help that is frequent testing. Make it routine.

This is especially true if you/a member of your household/regular contact is regularly interacting with others indoors, unmasked.

Getting tested regularly helps give Public Health hints about where to find the virus, which helps prevent *gestures wildly at the past 6 weeks*

That's it for tonight's update.

Tomorrow during the day I'll do my monthly all-Canada update and a bonus summary of an analysis of outbreak dynamics in Atlantic Canada vs the rest of the country.

Take care of one another and have a great rest of the night.