Johnson has obviously accepted there's going to be a Scottish referendum. It can't be this year, and it has to be before the next general election in 2024.
That leaves 2022 or 2023
That leaves 2022 or 2023
It always feels to me like it would need a year's planning and preparation. So to have it next year they'd have to start planning it now.
I suppose they could if they had to, but want to? I doubt it.
I suppose they could if they had to, but want to? I doubt it.
2023 seems right to me. But here's the thing.
The general election is 2024, and is Scotland had voted for independence the Tories would lose the election, and Labour would negotiate the separation.
The general election is 2024, and is Scotland had voted for independence the Tories would lose the election, and Labour would negotiate the separation.
So I think what's going to happen is that the referendum will be set for 2023.
And once that date is fixed, then the Tories will have an early election next year to try and give themselves a five year cushion to negotiate the separation
And once that date is fixed, then the Tories will have an early election next year to try and give themselves a five year cushion to negotiate the separation
My estimate is that the Tories will give permission this autumn for the SNP to hold a referendum.
The SNP will set it for 2023.
And once the date is fixed, then Johnson will call an early general election next year.
The SNP will set it for 2023.
And once the date is fixed, then Johnson will call an early general election next year.
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