Johnson has obviously accepted there's going to be a Scottish referendum. It can't be this year, and it has to be before the next general election in 2024.
That leaves 2022 or 2023
It always feels to me like it would need a year's planning and preparation. So to have it next year they'd have to start planning it now.
I suppose they could if they had to, but want to? I doubt it.
2023 seems right to me. But here's the thing.
The general election is 2024, and is Scotland had voted for independence the Tories would lose the election, and Labour would negotiate the separation.
So I think what's going to happen is that the referendum will be set for 2023.
And once that date is fixed, then the Tories will have an early election next year to try and give themselves a five year cushion to negotiate the separation
My estimate is that the Tories will give permission this autumn for the SNP to hold a referendum.
The SNP will set it for 2023.
And once the date is fixed, then Johnson will call an early general election next year.

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More from @Staedtler

28 May
No. The mistake the royal family is making and Gordon brown too by the sounds of it is to try and save the union by emotion.
But that only draws attention to the deficit
Y'see. The root of it is the massively unequal relation between England and Scotland. England has always been the dominant part of the union, and that means it has to conduct itself with self restraint.
What the English have abandoned is self-restraint. The Tories before Tony Blair and the Tories after Tony Blair are two different species. They share the same name, but they're not the same party.
Read 17 tweets
18 May
The trade part of twitter and the political part of twitter are not quite wired up right.
The trade part of twitter is all about the practical business of crossing borders.
While the political part of twitter is all about borders in people's head.
If you see Brexit as nothing more than trade rules, it will always mystify you why it doesn't work.
But once you understand it as ideology and nationalism, you know it will never work because it can never satisfy the emotions driving it.
Read 18 tweets
18 May
If Johnson accepts the agreement he has just repudiated his cabinet will resign and he'll get a vote of no confidence and a leadership challenge.
If Johnson tries to revert to the Theresa May customs area the ground will simply swallow him up out of embarrassment.
If Johnson tries to impose a border in Ireland he will invite the fury of two continents, both more powerful than him, and he will be forced to resign.
Read 6 tweets
17 May
It's easy to forget where you are with Brexit, but fear not, twitter is at hand.
A trade and co-operation agreement with Europe came into force on May 1st. This had been provisional since January. It provides tariff and quota-free trade.

A N D
The Northern Ireland protocol rules come into force over the course of 2021. Under this:
Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs code and parts of single market.
Checks take place at entry points to NI.
The UK has announced its intention to ignore the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement and treat Northern Ireland as an open border with the rest of Britain.
On March 15th the EU started infringement action.
The UK has until mid May to submit its observations in response.
Read 11 tweets
16 May
And I work it out like this. List all the ways it can end.
A border in the Irish Sea
Irish partition
Britain staying in Europe

Every one of those forces Johnson to resign. No, we haven't quite finished . . .
If Johnson is going to keep his job he has to find another option to those three.
And the only answer I can find is if we don't have a border but we don't follow European rules either.
And that's where Johnson has fallen through a gap in the universe. he keeps looking for an answer where Northern Ireland stays in the United Kingdom and stays in the European Union at the same time
Read 8 tweets
16 May
Johnson is getting the boot this summer. It's so obvious.
He can't get Brexit done because he can't split the union and he can't partition Ireland.
And no one else can do it either.
Johnson is going to be sacked, the Tories are going to admit that Brexit will destroy the country, then labour will have to admit the same.
Then Starmer will have to resign as well.
The problem is that no one can do Brexit, but until the country changes its mind every government is condemned to keep trying.
The answer is for the country to change its mind.
Read 8 tweets

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