Thread by @Ayjchan

This is a balanced assessment of the debate around the #OriginsOfCovid by @stephenburanyi in @guardian

I particularly like the honesty at the end of the piece.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Rather than guessing which origin scenario is more likely, it’s good to acknowledge which scenario you would prefer to be true.

“A lab-leak would tarnish the job of scientific research for a lifetime and prove some of the worst people in the culture war – partially – right.”

My guess is, for most scientists, we would prefer if this virus has 100% natural origins - zero involvement of researchers or research activities.

Then, presumably, we wouldn’t have any blame for not putting in better biosafety / research regulations years ago or even today.

What about the general public? What would be the preferred scenario?

I suspect it would also be a natural origin because the ramifications of this pandemic starting in a lab are possibly too catastrophic for us to handle in the middle of said pandemic.

Some troubling questions would have to be asked, for example:

Do scientists know what they’re doing? Why did they downplay the risks? Is this work still ongoing in different countries?

How does this affect geopolitics w nations ramping up pathogen collection and manipulation?

It feels like it’s easier to fall back on the “China being China” hypothesis.

Specifically, the simple recipe of:
China > exotic animal trade > SARS pandemic

But this risks overlooking new recipes for disaster in 21st century:
Any country > pandemic pathogen research > pandemic

Btw lab-based pandemics do not require any conspiracy. They can be covered up just like natural pandemics. The first SARS outbreak was also covered up in China, and that one was 100% natural.

Some people claim that a giant conspiracy is needed for a lab leak to have happened & be covered up.

Wouldn’t the same apply to covering up the source of a natural outbreak?

How many would know the source with certainty? Having suspicions doesn’t mean you’re in on a conspiracy.

So who are the people who would prefer a lab leak #OriginsOfCovid to be true?

Maybe some of the experts who have been warning for years or since the start of the pandemic about the risks of some types of pathogen research.

It would feel vindicating. That you had foresight.

Personal victories aside, the main incentive is that if a lab origin is found, the scientific community can finally have a serious, motivated discussion about making pathogen research safer.

Even today, some scientists still dismiss the likelihood of a future lab-based outbreak.

The tone has changed over the past year from “we condemn all conspiracy theories of non-natural origins” to “a lab leak is possible but very unlikely.”

The next step might be “ok, lab-based outbreaks are likely & we actually need to do something to prevent these in the future.”

But there are also honestly bad people who want a lab leak to be true for mainly political reasons.

Scientists weighing in on the lab leak have been & continue to be slapped with the “you’re fuelling racists and right-wing people” charge.

wired.com/story/covid-19…

This point in @jetjocko’s @WIRED piece stuck out to me:

“Some of the people talking about a lab leak don’t want an answer. They want to amplify and in some cases even create, for mostly venal reasons, doubt.”

And, unfortunately, I think this is true for some people.

Like Adam Rogers points out, the #OriginsOfCovid is perhaps a perfect topic for weaponizing or commercializing uncertainty.

It is high impact enough, sensational enough to draw attention away from other political failures. At least for a short while.

However, I don’t like @jetjocko’s piece because it just adds to the polarization of this issue.

I know we’re not done mud slinging yet but I’m waiting for science writers to write about the people who genuinely want to find the #OriginsOfCovid

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1375477626161270790

And this group of people who are truly motivated to find the #OriginsOfCovid span the political spectrum. No political group “owns” the lab leak hypothesis.

This group includes scientists who think a lab leak is unlikely, and also scientists who think a lab leak is likely.

I would like to see some articles focused on what unites us. Ask scientists what they think needs to be investigated next and if they will publicly call for an international investigation to be set up - looking into both natural and laboratory-based #OriginsOfCovid hypotheses.

https://twitter.com/ayjchan/status/1398046460558598156