Thread by @sfrantzman

Thread: In Israel there is talk that the opposition to Netanyahu is on the verge of a coalition. After four failed elections some think this could be the moment. But there are many things still in the way. Here's my sense:

There are still hurdles, such as getting all the MKs on board from the complex coalition that is forming which includes a massive swath of parties from the religion right to left and potentially Arab MKs. It's very complex.

Second, Netanyahu will not go easy. A "crisis" may emerge as he lashes out claiming the "right" has been betrayed by a "left" government coming to power...all the stops will be pulled out to prevent things happening in preference for Netanyahu's endless elections scheme

Even if Lapid and Bennett can bring an agreement there will be court cases challenges and other attempts to slow down or stop the process.

It's entirely possible a "security" crisis may emerge that demands "national unity"...such as something to do with Iran or Hezbollah...after Liberman left the government 2018 a magical "crisis" emerged that demanded Bennett stay.

The extreme right and religious may create a crisis...it could be anything...but it has happened before, before Disengagement there was always talk of "things" happening to prevent it. Extremists will work to prevent losing their "in" with power.

Don't underestimate the sectarian balkanization of Israel, religious parties stand to lose a lot of what they gained becoming a kind of "state within a state" over the last decades...draft avoidance, funding, non-investigations of corruption, stopping extraditions even...

Lastly, even if all this is avoided or overcome...from Day 1 of the new coalition, Netanyahu and his allies will work to break it apart so as to ride back into power and say "see it ididn't work, we are back to fix things"...

Parties in power for a decade don't walk away from the table easily. Israel has become part of the trend of states with endless elections and endless political leaders. It's hard to pull such things off of clinging to power.

Many people I've spoken to have an "only Bibi" view about politics in Israel..."he's the only one who can do it"...and that was cemented. It will be hard to change that.

We'll see.