A "new study" has hit the headlines that apparently proves that SARS-CoV-2 was lab-grown
I am QUITE SKEPTICAL for a number of reasons, would love your thoughts...
First massive red flag🚩: the paper is NOT PUBLISHED YET
Science journalists know you NEVER report on a paper that is unpublished (because it might be shit)
Second 🚩🚩🚩: the abstract is...kind of weird
I'm not a virologist, but talking about some previous experiments that "reverse the burden of proof" is...not really logical
Also, the statement in the abstract that "all relevant" information has been destroyed or is unavailable is both untrue and a weeeird conspiracy theory for a scientific journal to publish
Reading the abstract, they literally say "because of our study, which does not prove anything, we expect other people to prove that the virus did not escape from a lab"
Like I said, not ideal logic that
In an interview, one of the two scientists also says things that are, uh, wrong
Again, not a virologist but as I understand it this is simply untrue (natural viruses can do lots of things)
I haven't had time to read it in extreme detail yet, but a quick skim seems to show that it is a fairly good piece of research that the authors have already improved in the 24 hours since it went online
Arguably the most important point of the study - the vast majority of evidence on ivermectin for COVID-19 appears to be of extremely poor quality even when you limit the results only to the best studies
This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance
The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlines
There is an excellent and comprehensive thread on the issue here, but the basic point is that experts pretty much universally agree that a natural origin is by far the most likely explanation
It is POSSIBLE that there was a lab leak and THIS SHOULD BE INVESTIGATED, but it is also only a very SMALL possibility and certainly not more likely than a natural explanation
It's just not really much of a finding, and it's definitely not enough to even demonstrate that there is a solid difference between people with and without myopia
The bottom line is pretty depressing - we've spent months arguing back and forth, meanwhile this paper has had a HUGE impact and probably impacted policy decisions across the world
Thing is, our debate about this article has been FAST by academic standards
Three letters/responses for a single article published in 6 months? Snappy by many standards
3/n For reference, if you've forgotten, the original article basically argued that "more" restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (mrNPIs) such as lockdowns didn't work to prevent COVID-19 cases
It is MASSIVELY popular, with an Altmetric of 19k and dozens of citations