A notion that a lot of Twitter seems set on is that few educated whites who voted for Trump in 2020 could possibly vote Democratic in 2024, especially if Kamala Harris is the nominee. Trouble is, this ignores that voters often move based on factors beyond just the candidates.
Now, it's true that one of the biggest factors for individual candidates is the national environment they induce, and everything else now largely flows from it.
The question is, is the national environment Harris induces substantially different from the one Biden induces?
The question is, is the national environment Harris induces substantially different from the one Biden induces?
There's an argument for this, in that Harris seems to poll worse than Biden right now. But four years in the vice presidency can do a *lot* for image, and if polarization increases, candidate quality might begin to matter even less, narrowing the gap more.
And I think a lot of the conversation doomposting about Harris and 2024 this early on ignores that if the economy is good and polarization stays high or increases, then Harris running as a continuation of Biden might make the electoral differences between them minimal.
Essentially, I don't think the candidate qualities that everyone keeps railing on about matter nearly as much as people think. It basically comes down to polarization, Biden approvals, and the economy. If those are okay, realignment doesn't magically reverse itself against Harris
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