I seriously think one of the biggest blind spots in political forecasting is the average pundit's unawareness of how uninformed the median voter actually is. Most people don't live and breathe electoral politics. Just because *you* know something doesn't mean everyone else does.
"shifting this state legislature/county commissioner race from likely to tilt D because of a minor scandal where the legislator lived outside his district for 5 years" bro. absolutely *nobody* cares. sorry, but the median voter doesn't even know who the hell that even *is*.
There are very few events of saliency that meaningfully make it to people, and once a party has a certain image, it is very, very difficult to shed it because of how few events even reach the eyes of most voters.
That's also partly why January 6 was so damaging to the GOP. It's tough to get an event that makes it into the eyes of >50% of the American public. And then it's hard to wipe away the perception and the impact of that very easily.
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