Global CO₂ emissions grew at 2.6%/yr in the 2000s, but this dropped to 1.0%/yr in the 2010s.

Can we see this in the atmosphere?

If emissions growth continued at 2.6%/yr in the 2010s, it would lead to ~0.3ppm difference in 2019, or cumulatively 1.3ppm over the 2010s.

1/ Image
How did I do this?
1. Assume emissions continued at 2.6%/yr from 2010
2. Get difference with current emissions
3. Multiply by airbourne fraction (AF, estimated 1960-2010, 0.43) to estimate atmospheric increase
4. Convert to ppm (1ppm = 2.124GtC, GtCO2 = 3.664 GtC).

Simple!

2/
We should see this in the atmosphere, but how confidently given variability?

The effective difference in growth rates is ~2%, which we should be able to detect after 5-10 years. Though, note in the commentary, we compared 1% & -1%, not 2.5% & 1%.
rdcu.be/buifD

3/
This is a part of my new life doing research via Twitter...


Which sees extensive peer review, follow the threads under this tweet.


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More from @Peters_Glen

28 May
Norway's oil industry on defensive after IEA report as polls loom

One report can change the debate & potentially tip the scales in an election year!

A good summary of why the @IEA's Net Zero 2050 report could be transformational, by @olehelgesen7.

1/

upstreamonline.com/opinion/opinio…
"It is not obvious that the cheapest resources with the lowest carbon footprint lie in the resources already discovered... To stop exploration at this time would cause a major threat to the world's energy security", are the arguments from the Norwegian Oil & Gas lobby

2/
"Recent polls have shown that 60% to 70% of voters continue to support future Norwegian oil & gas production"

[Perhaps the political niche is threading the needle between investment for old & new fields, taking the IEA's lead]

3/
Read 8 tweets
25 May
THREAD: Bioenergy use in the @IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario

I have seen a few comments that the IEA uses loads of bioenergy. Let's have a look...

First up, overall, bioenergy use is lower than in equivalent scenarios assessed by the IPCC, particularly in 2050.

1/
2. An important detail is that the IEA assumes traditional biomass is gone by 2030. Traditional bioenergy "is unsustainable, inefficient & polluting, & was linked to 2.5 million premature deaths in 2020"

The IPCC only has a slow drop, so the IEA must build up modern bioenergy.
3. In terms of modern bioenergy, the IEA has similar levels as the IPCC up until 2050.
* Rapid growth to 2030 is to compensate traditional bioenergy
* Slowdown to 2050 is to limit to 100EJ per year, view by many as sustainable.
Read 11 tweets
19 May
The IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario uses quite a lot less Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS) than scenarios assessed by the IPCC.

Consequently, all else equal, the IEA NZE2050 uses less fossil fuel in 2050 than most IPCC SR15 scenarios.

1/

iea.org/reports/net-ze…
The IEA, in contrast, has a decent (not huge) amount of Direct Air Capture (DACCS) of 0.6GtCO₂/yr.

Not many scenarios assessed by the IPCC SR15 use DACCS (4 out of 53 have non-zero data, the other 2 marked have zero DACCS)

The scenario with high DACCS is from MERGE-ETL.

2/
Since IEA NZE2050 reaches net-zero CO₂ emissions in 2050, the removals (tweets 1 & 2) must balance with (residual) emissions in 2050.

The NZE2050 clearly has far less fossil fuel use in 2050 than most IPCC SR15 assessed 1.5°C scenarios.

3/
Read 7 tweets
18 May
The new @IEA Net Zero by 2050 report is crystal clear on what is needed.

"All the technologies needed to achieve the necessary deep cuts in global emissions by 2030 already exist, & the policies that can drive their deployment are already proven."

iea.org/reports/net-ze…

1/
"Clean energy innovation must accelerate rapidly, with governments putting R&D, demonstration and deployment at the core of energy and climate policy."

In 2030 only existing technologies needed, by 2050 new technologies also come to market.

2/
Net Zero 2050 is a jobs bonanza.

JOBS. JOBS. JOBS.

"The transition to net zero brings substantial new opportunities for employment, with 14 million jobs created by 2030 in our pathway thanks to new activities and investment in clean energy"

More jobs than losses...

3/
Read 10 tweets
10 May
What explains the generally poor performance of solar in energy-system models (versus reality)?

Primary:
* Type of organisation
* Type of model

Secondary
* Cost
* Technology & policy assumptions

rdcu.be/ckjbh

1/
"IPCC scenarios consistently project lower PV adoption pathways & higher capital costs than non-IPCC scenarios"

Academics & researchers are behind the curve... (or are they just exploring the uncertainties?)

2/
If you think the track record on PV costs are bad, then you have missed the elephant in the room

Model, model setup, model assumptions, etc, are more important. This is such a misunderstood issue.

3/
Read 8 tweets
10 May
Norwegian electricity production is dominated by hydropower, & overall Norway is a net exporter of electricity (though, this varies throughout the year).

Hydropower production varies due to weather (green), but consumption is relatively constant (black line).

1/
Total energy consumption is dominated by hydropower (figure shows generation, not consumption).

Nearly all the oil is used in transport, and nearly all the gas is used in oil & gas extraction.

Norway is already quite electrified...

2/
The energy flow is dominated by electricity (hydropower, split between dispatchable & non-dispatchable).

As time passes, this figure will become even more dominated by electricity. Current policy is to electrify transport & oil & gas production...

energifaktanorge.no/en/energy-fact…

3/
Read 4 tweets

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