Count the drought and wet years during the last 20 years. When was the last time that we got a wet year?
Data Source: IMD. Compiled by IITM.
1/5
All India Rainfall (AIR) shows multi-decadal variations, with a slump in recent decades. Decline in rainfall is more evident at regional levels—denoted by the blue colors.
Reference: nature.com/articles/ncomm…
2/5
The decline in total rainfall coincides with an increase in heavy rains across many parts of India—denoted by the yellow-red colors.
Reference: nature.com/articles/s4146…
3/5
Over central India, the changes in the monsoon are evident. There's a decline in total rainfall—along with a threefold rise in extreme rains. This means that we are having longer dry periods intermittent with shorter spells of heavy rains.
Reference: nature.com/articles/s4146…
4/5
There are but regions where both the total rainfall and heavy rains are increasing—like Gujarat and Odisha.
5/5
During the last 20 years of Monsoon (All India Rainfall).
Drought years = 5. That's one in every four years.
Wet years = ZERO.
The last time that we got a wet year = 1994.
1/ With climate change, the storyline has changed for Mumbai and the coastline of India. This thread discusses how storms surge from intense cyclones, heavy rains, and sea-level rise are all overlapping—to create prolonged large-scale floods. #MumbaiMustPrepare@MumbaisMagic
2/ Arabian Sea is brewing more intense cyclones than ever. Tauktae was the most intense cyclone (220 km/hr) that came very close to Mumbai. Cyclones drive storm surges—huge waves (5 m high) that push water onto the land, flooding the coast.
◉ Flood = storm surge
3/ Cyclones are bringing more rains than ever. Global warming has made more water available as warm air holds more moisture. Tauktae brought heavy rains of 230 mm in a day (SantaCruz, Mumbai), an all-time record for May.
◉ Flood = storm surge + rain water.
IMD's seasonal forecast today indicates normal monsoon rainfall this year. This image shows how important are the oceans for the monsoon—and ocean observations for monsoon forecasts. The tentacles of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans have a tight grip on the monsoon.
Review on why we need to invest more on ocean observations for understanding monsoon, cyclones, and severe weather events. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
Reference for the IITM study with the octopus figure: "Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit" doi.org/10.1029/2018JD…
Cyclone along the India-Pakistan border. IMD/global forecasts indicate that the low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea will develop into Cyclone #Tauktae on 16 May, move close to the west coast, and advance to the Indo-Pak north of Gujarat. Heavy rains expected along the track.