1/ The climate has changed, forever. Humans have caused it and our commitments are insufficient to bring the curve down. This is a curve that we are not flattening. Climate change will continue and intensify for centuries, if not a few thousand years into the future. #IPCCreport2/ The global mean temperature will cross the 1.5°C limit in the current decade or next, and the 2°C during 2040–2060. This is because the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by nations via Paris Agreement are insufficient to flatten the curve.
Jun 1, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/ With climate change, the storyline has changed for Mumbai and the coastline of India. This thread discusses how storms surge from intense cyclones, heavy rains, and sea-level rise are all overlapping—to create prolonged large-scale floods. #MumbaiMustPrepare@MumbaisMagic2/ Arabian Sea is brewing more intense cyclones than ever. Tauktae was the most intense cyclone (220 km/hr) that came very close to Mumbai. Cyclones drive storm surges—huge waves (5 m high) that push water onto the land, flooding the coast.
◉ Flood = storm surge
Jun 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
IMD's seasonal forecast today indicates normal monsoon rainfall this year. This image shows how important are the oceans for the monsoon—and ocean observations for monsoon forecasts. The tentacles of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans have a tight grip on the monsoon.
Review on why we need to invest more on ocean observations for understanding monsoon, cyclones, and severe weather events. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
May 31, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
150 Years of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall.
Count the drought and wet years during the last 20 years. When was the last time that we got a wet year?
Data Source: IMD. Compiled by IITM.
All India Rainfall (AIR) shows multi-decadal variations, with a slump in recent decades. Decline in rainfall is more evident at regional levels—denoted by the blue colors.
May 13, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Cyclone along the India-Pakistan border. IMD/global forecasts indicate that the low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea will develop into Cyclone #Tauktae on 16 May, move close to the west coast, and advance to the Indo-Pak north of Gujarat. Heavy rains expected along the track.
IMD weather forecast bulletins are available here: mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/con…
INCOIS-IMD joint bulletins are available here: incois.gov.in/WEBSITE_FILES/…