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Roxy Koll ⛈

1 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read

IMD's seasonal forecast today indicates normal monsoon rainfall this year. This image shows how important are the oceans for the monsoon—and ocean observations for monsoon forecasts. The tentacles of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans have a tight grip on the monsoon.

Review on why we need to invest more on ocean observations for understanding monsoon, cyclones, and severe weather events.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…

Reference for the IITM study with the octopus figure: "Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction: Improved Estimate of Predictability Limit"
doi.org/10.1029/2018JD…

Updated seasonal forecast for June-September 2021, from IMD. Dated 01 June 2021.

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Roxy Koll ⛈

@rocksea

1 Jun

@MumbaisMagic

1/ With climate change, the storyline has changed for Mumbai and the coastline of India. This thread discusses how storms surge from intense cyclones, heavy rains, and sea-level rise are all overlapping—to create prolonged large-scale floods.
#MumbaiMustPrepare @MumbaisMagic

2/ Arabian Sea is brewing more intense cyclones than ever. Tauktae was the most intense cyclone (220 km/hr) that came very close to Mumbai. Cyclones drive storm surges—huge waves (5 m high) that push water onto the land, flooding the coast.
◉ Flood = storm surge

3/ Cyclones are bringing more rains than ever. Global warming has made more water available as warm air holds more moisture. Tauktae brought heavy rains of 230 mm in a day (SantaCruz, Mumbai), an all-time record for May.
◉ Flood = storm surge + rain water.

Read 12 tweets

Roxy Koll ⛈

@rocksea

31 May

150 Years of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

Count the drought and wet years during the last 20 years. When was the last time that we got a wet year?

Data Source: IMD. Compiled by IITM.

1/5

All India Rainfall (AIR) shows multi-decadal variations, with a slump in recent decades. Decline in rainfall is more evident at regional levels—denoted by the blue colors.
Reference: nature.com/articles/ncomm…

2/5

The decline in total rainfall coincides with an increase in heavy rains across many parts of India—denoted by the yellow-red colors.
Reference: nature.com/articles/s4146…

3/5

Read 9 tweets

Roxy Koll ⛈

@rocksea

13 May

Cyclone along the India-Pakistan border. IMD/global forecasts indicate that the low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea will develop into Cyclone #Tauktae on 16 May, move close to the west coast, and advance to the Indo-Pak north of Gujarat. Heavy rains expected along the track.

IMD weather forecast bulletins are available here:
mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/con…
INCOIS-IMD joint bulletins are available here:
incois.gov.in/WEBSITE_FILES/…

Observed and forecasted track from IMD, along with wind distribution on the coast.
IMD bulletin on 14 May: mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marqu…

Read 4 tweets

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