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1 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
"5G is just the next G. We have to do it. Our capital profile is reasonably consistent over time. So monetization of 5G it’s the same game plan we’ve always had. We were focused on getting the crown jewel asset around mid-band 5G,” T-Mobile CEO M. Sievert sdxcentral.com/articles/news/…
"We kind of side-eyed cable selling wireless and said, ‘yes, they are an MVNO, they will never be able to really, but [did] very effectively. They have been more successful than we thought. Without owner economics, they can’t compete with us sustainably." fiercewireless.com/operators/t-mo…
"This year we will move from our current 60 to 80 megahertz deployed in mid-band 5G to 100 megahertz on a superior piece of spectrum, 2.5 GHz, that propagates farther.” T-Mobile' Sievert

Everything in wireless involves tradeoffs. Suite spot spectrum is many hertz not too high.
4/ "Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five or six. In some of those markets, nobody makes any money to speak of. But in others, everybody does very well. I don't have a perfect model for predicting what's going to happen." Munger theinvestmentsblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/munger…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
30 May
1/ Every successful entrepreneur knows customer lifetime value (CLV) is the difference between the present value of the cash flows a customer generates over his or her lifetime and the cost to acquire the customer. This applies to my hamburger example here or a SaaS business.
2/ "A company expecting $500 in lifetime cash flow from a customer who cost $300 to acquire adds $200 to its value.

Customer NPV = PV of lifetime customer cash flows – acquisition costs." Mauboussin

The analysis is about cash flow and not GAAP earnings. hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-ec…
3/ CLV is a particularly important tool today because: 1) customer acquisition costs happen up front; and 2) GAAP requiring that the cost of intangible assets be expensed rather than capitalized makes "earnings" a potentially misleading way to determine the value of a business.
Read 7 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
26 May
1/ When an investor talks about "unit economics," they are taking about a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.

CLV = "the present value of cash flows that a customer generates while they are engaged with the firm minus the cost to acquire the customer." morganstanley.com/im/publication…
2/ The value of understanding the CBCV/LTV of customers was immediately apparent when I saw cable, mobile and software businesses create obvious value without GAAP earnings. By focusing on cash flow and value creation having a variant perception that generated alpha wasn't hard. Image
3/ The current customers are the basis for the steady-state value and
future customers are the source of the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO). Exhibit 1 shows the drivers of
value.

CBCV = a bottoms-up DCF of all present and future potential customers. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
23 May
1/ "If you compete in a field where luck plays a role, focus more on the process of how you make decisions." Michael Mauboussin

The best way to improve your own processes is to study the processes used by other people.

You aren't Howard Marks, but can learn from his process.
2/ "Be obsessive about understanding everything you possibly can about your craft. That requires you to keep learning over time. Study the history, know the pioneers. It's the bedrock foundation for what you're going to build upon." Bill Gurley jamesclear.com/great-speeches…
3/ "Develop mentors in your field. Take every chance you can to find somebody who can teach you about the field you want to excel in. You don't have to jump straight to the top on day one. Treat them with respect. Debate things, learn from them." Bill Gurley
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
21 May
A friend sent me a DM and said: "This isn't a podcast. It's a conversation between two friends sharing stories as if they are in a pub." Exactly right.

This is Jim and Tren trying to make each other laugh. Not letting each other get away with anything. infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-f…
2/ Jim and I were influenced by our grandfathers who ran businesses.

In my case my mother would drop me off at his marina starting at age six. I would listen to the stories they told on his boat and I wanted to be in my own stories someday. The stories taught me about business.
3/ The people who told stories were planning a Seattle World's Fair and ran businesses like hotels and racetracks. Seattle was an open city then with lots of temptations. Many stories about the mistakes their friends made were told. Humans make mistakes was a lesson I learned.
Read 7 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 May
Recording this second follow up podcast with Jim was big fun. One theme of this conversation are the many ways we are the same and yet use different approaches to reach the same or a similar conclusion. There is no one way to successfully invest or live a full and active life.
2/ To illustrate, Jim and are friends with Michael Mauboussin. In Michael's essay released yesterday He describes my natural approach to business and investing, which is bottoms up. morganstanley.com/im/publication… Jim's natural approach is to use statistical factors. Vive la différence!
3/ My first podcast with Jim is linked to below. In our second (linked above) we discuss how our investing and business styles evolved to reflect our personalities and the people who influenced us. We talk about the dotcom era and other shared experiences.infiniteloopspodcast.com/tren-griffin-e…
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 May
When a Michael Mauboussin essay like this drops, I sing the Hallelujah Chorus so loud my neighbors complain.

If you aren't reading this post soon what the hell will you be reading?

The value of a business is the sum of the value of existing and future customers. Bottoms up!
2/ "Customers, revenues, and costs are the core drivers in the CBCV model. It is essential to consider how they interact when assessing how various assumptions affect value. Specifically, there are trade-offs between the drivers."

The interaction of factors makes the game fun!
3/ "For example, a price increase grows cash flow but raises the churn rate. A price drop shrinks cash flow
but lowers the churn rate. A focus on new customer acquisition increases the number of customers but raises
acquisition costs."

Understanding the interaction is an art.
Read 7 tweets

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