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A micro thread 🧵👇
1/ What is a commodity supercycle?
They are near decade long periods where commodities trade well above their price trend
supercycles are rare
Going back 100 years, Only 3-4 supercycles have been identified & each was tied to a transformational period of economic development.
2/ A one-two year rally in commodity prices is NOT a supercycle, rather could just a rebound from an imp. event as what even happened after the 2008 great recession.
1/n Read latest Concalls of some of the world's most valued companies: Cash of their books over $500B.
Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet.
Mega Thread on Trends, their businesses & how they are dealing with Covid. One by One.
2/n $MSFT
"As COVID-19 impacts every aspect of our work and life, we have seen 2 years' worth of digital transformation in 2 months." ~Satya Nadella
Security + Privacy + Compliance: Trustworthy institutions can differentiate+ Monetisation. (World's largest Hedge Fund: customer)
3/n
"Accelerating Microsoft Teams innovation, adding new capabilities each week, and now support meetings of all sizes, meetings that scale from 250 active participants, to live events for up to 100,000 attendees, to streaming broadcasts."
1/n Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC Ltd. advice to all on the current state: THREAD.
To Companies:
One key advice is to be liquid. Having PE Commitment or Sanctioned Line of Limit is not liquidity. Liquidity is what you have, not some sanctioned piece of paper.
2/n Valuation model is going to change. Companies will be judged on tangible cash flow.
Startup model of Burning cash will not last. Adding to this, he does believe that the future will bring a lot more innovations by them to emerge stronger.
3/n To Real Estate:
Pricing has to come down. In ready inventory, be prepared for reducing costs to sell the
inventory at earliest.
Corporates shall defer commercial property transactions. WFH is not a major disrupter as most jobs are not possible.