Niranjan Hiranandani's view of how different real estate asset classes will go through in this cycle?

A micro thread 🧵👇
1/ Residential housing: The finished products are going to sell best all across India.

Location remains the most important factor, others are pricing, sizing of the flats & amenities asked by the residents.

The last 2 have benefitted immensely due to the Work from Home Trend.
2/ Commercial Projects are facing a big setback & should continue facing one for a year or two.

However, one who invests in them now will create High ROI long-term assets.

Tier 2 & 3 cities are seeing increased demand for commercial real estate: Mostly small & medium format.
3/ Industrial & Warehousing demand has skyrocketed in recent times.

Data Centers: Again a high growth area, will be highly competitive by the next year (a lot of projects coming up)

Extremely capital intensive: 25x of a normal residential building of the same size.
4/ Resort & Peripherals: This is going to be a major growth area going forward 1-2 yrs.

As the COVID scare recedes & people start coming out of their homes+ work from anywhere trend.

Lastly, A caveat: Wherever commercial picks up, residential dev will follow.

End of Thread.

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More from @AnishA_Moonka

20 Apr
Commodity Supercycles.

Hit the 're-tweet' & help us educate more investors.

A micro thread 🧵👇
1/ What is a commodity supercycle?

They are near decade long periods where commodities trade well above their price trend

supercycles are rare

Going back 100 years, Only 3-4 supercycles have been identified & each was tied to a transformational period of economic development.
2/ A one-two year rally in commodity prices is NOT a supercycle, rather could just a rebound from an imp. event as what even happened after the 2008 great recession.
Read 7 tweets
4 Jul 20
1/n

Interesting snippets from the shareholder letters by Mr Deepak Parekh, HDFC from FY12-20

To equity Investors: India is not a ‘top- down story; it never was & perhaps never will be

India is a ‘micro’ story

Companies underestand: Risk of not being in India> Risk of being.
2/n

The mindset behind their lending: Hats off.

Also adds, that as India’s mortgage penetration is so low, insincere lenders tend to gain market share during great times.

For HDFC, Profitability is the focus, not market share.
3/n

The Power of Entrepreneurship

When HDFC ltd started in 1977, there was no systems to lend; they created it

Indian Regulators strict norms helped us skip the real estate bubbles in the past

CERSAI was setup in 2013 to counter multiple financing against the same property.
Read 8 tweets
26 Jun 20
The business cycle of a life Insurance company from the shareholder’s point of view:

In the long run, only solvency (ensures suvival) & dividends matter but require constant monitoring through the phase 3. Image
What to constantly monitor during the Phase 3: Growth, Capital & Execution of strategy. Image
Life Insurance is a commodity business. Here’s how one can differentiate: Image
Read 4 tweets
2 May 20
1/n Read latest Concalls of some of the world's most valued companies: Cash of their books over $500B.

Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet.

Mega Thread on Trends, their businesses & how they are dealing with Covid. One by One.
2/n $MSFT

"As COVID-19 impacts every aspect of our work and life, we have seen 2 years' worth of digital transformation in 2 months." ~Satya Nadella

Security + Privacy + Compliance: Trustworthy institutions can differentiate+ Monetisation. (World's largest Hedge Fund: customer)
3/n

"Accelerating Microsoft Teams innovation, adding new capabilities each week, and now support meetings of all sizes, meetings that scale from 250 active participants, to live events for up to 100,000 attendees, to streaming broadcasts."

75m+ daily active users.
Read 51 tweets
19 Apr 20
1/n Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC Ltd. advice to all on the current state: THREAD.

To Companies:

One key advice is to be liquid. Having PE Commitment or Sanctioned Line of Limit is not liquidity. Liquidity is what you have, not some sanctioned piece of paper.
2/n Valuation model is going to change. Companies will be judged on tangible cash flow.

Startup model of Burning cash will not last. Adding to this, he does believe that the future will bring a lot more innovations by them to emerge stronger.
3/n To Real Estate:

Pricing has to come down. In ready inventory, be prepared for reducing costs to sell the
inventory at earliest.

Corporates shall defer commercial property transactions. WFH is not a major disrupter as most jobs are not possible.
Read 5 tweets
12 Apr 20
1/n Banking is risky, as they are the leveraged 10:1 or worse but that's not bad in the good times.

Taking the context of how JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States dealt with the 2008 Great Financial Crisis: Thread.
2/n Their profits did decline by 60%. (PROFITABLE.)

Total assets went up 38%
Advances up by 43%
Deposits up by 36%

& Liquidity increased up a bit during the worst crisis since 1929 THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

Bought Bear Sterns & Washington Mutual on pennies. (more on that later)
3/n They were one of the first to talk about the upcoming storm & prepared for the upcoming economic downturn.

Accepted the uncertainty & prepared for the worst conditions.
Read 11 tweets

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