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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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1 Jun, 3 tweets, 1 min read
#NM01 is currently at ~D+28 for the early vote for Tuesday's special election, going by party registration numbers.

In November, 89% of the vote was cast early and was ~D+19 for the congressional race (Haaland won by 16.4 points).

Anything below D+20 would be *stunning*.
Looking at Twitter, I don't think people have their priors set properly for this one. We have absolutely no evidence to believe that there will be a strong R surge that will destroy Democrats on election day, based on what we know. Ds have also lapped the Rs in fundraising.
Early vote numbers per @Alexrosstweets and @NMSecOfState.

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
31 May
A notion that a lot of Twitter seems set on is that few educated whites who voted for Trump in 2020 could possibly vote Democratic in 2024, especially if Kamala Harris is the nominee. Trouble is, this ignores that voters often move based on factors beyond just the candidates.
Now, it's true that one of the biggest factors for individual candidates is the national environment they induce, and everything else now largely flows from it.

The question is, is the national environment Harris induces substantially different from the one Biden induces?
There's an argument for this, in that Harris seems to poll worse than Biden right now. But four years in the vice presidency can do a *lot* for image, and if polarization increases, candidate quality might begin to matter even less, narrowing the gap more.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
13 May
From an epidemiological standpoint, travel bans are understandable. But there are a lot of folks whose status has now been thrown into flux as a result of this. It's incumbent on the Biden administration to make sure they aren't lost. [THREAD]

americanbazaaronline.com/2021/05/11/tra…
A woman went from New Jersey to India to take care of her dying father. Right after his death, her brother-in-law caught COVID and died.

At the same time back home, her husband was hospitalized with COVID. Before she could return, he died. It appears she's now stranded in India.
The worst part is that at a time when the woman (who left her job to attend to her dying father) and her 20-year-old son should be able to process the immense grief they're going through, they're worried about her visa possibly being invalidated instead.
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
13 May
Using a county-based demographics model, Biden's underperformance in Kenosha was extremely stark (Trump +5.4% above average), even compared to his Wisconsin statewide underperformance of 1.1%.
Not saying in the slightest that protests are bad or that it's my place to tell people how to protest, and if you're going to use this to argue that people shouldn't protest for racial justice, please take a hike. Not everything can or should be boiled down to electoral politics.
That said, it's worth examining overall how these things tended to play nationwide and how they effected margins locally, if only so we have a clearer picture of the electorate and their voting trends and patterns.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
13 May
2014 was a non-voting midterm -- Democrats got screwed over by differential turnout. But again, turnout among whites was decently correlated with education.

The problem? College whites were significantly more Republican than they are now.
Regression plots 2014_votes/2012_votes, weighted by county CVAP. I picked the South, because the educational and racial polarization makes it a fairly insightful case to analyze. The states I considered: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.
There's another angle to this too -- Hispanics still lean heavily D, and their turnout tends to dip in midterms. That counters the educated voter difference that Democrats have in some states, and they'll need to work heavily to make sure they aren't hurt badly by this.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
11 May
The question is whether it’s worth spending heavily in a race you’ll likely lose, or whether it’s better to go all-in on the three battleground races in PA/WI/NC for Democrats.
Spending in Ohio has advantages, including forcing the GOP to spend some money there that could go elsewhere. And it’s really about widening the field of play. But another complication is that the more nationalized this gets, the tougher it is for Ds to win.
Ultimately, if Tim Ryan is to pull it off, the election has to avoid being nationalized. There’s just one too many Republicans in Ohio for Democrats to win a high-turnout Senate election here. He should be backed with funds, but the race getting nationalized would be a problem.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
11 May
At what point do you go from serious candidate to statewide joke?
There's this myth among several Republicans that John James is an exceptional candidate because he gets them more of the Black vote.

The problem with this narrative is that it is provably false. He got 80 (!) more votes than Trump in the city of Detroit, which is ~80% Black.
James outran Trump in areas like Kent County, which were far more ancestrally friendly to Republicans and have been swinging towards Democrats. This is an area where he'll probably need to do a lot better than expected in 2022 if he is to beat Whitmer.
Read 4 tweets

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