1. American democracy is in serious danger, because it's under sustained assault from Republicans who wield real power across the country. But to understand what's going on and why it's so dangerous, here are some things I've learned from studying democratic breakdown elsewhere:
2. Democracy - bear with me - is a bit like a sandcastle. By just holding an election, you can make something super basic that looks like a democracy. But without lots more effort, you're stuck with something weak that can easily be wiped away. Many countries never get past that.
3. Over hundreds of years, the US built a sophisticated, robust democratic sandcastle - what political scientists call a "consolidated democracy." It's so sophisticated that individual institutions can falter, but the whole thing still stays standing. It's become pretty resilient
4. Like sandcastles, even strong democracies can be wiped out in one big wave (coup, civil war, or revolution), but these days, they're often destroyed by smaller waves -- the slower erosion of authoritarian populism, attacks on voting rights, politicization of rule of law, etc.
5. In a way, that's more insidious, because apolitical people rarely notice it's happening. When you lose a few grains of sand per day, year after year, the damage is severe, but there's no coup, no revolution, no abrupt shift. It's lots of small waves that each wash sand away.
6. That's happening in the US currently. The MAGA wave did a lot of damage under Trump. But now, the waves are continuing to erode democracy at the state level, at the local level, in addition to national level politics that are defined by increasingly authoritarian Republicans.
7. The challenge for us now is that diverting the waves or repairing a damaged democratic sand castle is a lot easier than building one from scratch, or trying to rebuild one that's underwater. When democracies collapse into an authoritarian mess, they're rarely rebuilt.
8. Republican political dynamics now actually reward GOP politicians who embrace authoritarianism and punish those who aim to protect democratic institutions. The extremism is getting worse in the party. And the waves, so to speak, are getting more frequent.
9. The point, then, is that we're in a period of severe danger for our democracy, and if we don't protect it now, it'll be way harder to repair or rebuild. I've studied many democracies that were washed away by authoritarian waves. Pretty much none have been successfully rebuilt.
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1. By replacing Cheney with Stefanik, the GOP has centered itself around a cult of personality, in which sacrificing principles and truth on the altar of Trumpism is required. It's a dynamic I've seen firsthand in dictatorships and authoritarian regimes. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
2. Cheney was replaced for two reasons: 1) She broke with Trump during impeachment; and 2) She challenged the "Big Lie" about the 2020 election. The 2nd reason is far more sinister. She was purged because she wouldn't repeat the myths that now define Trump's cult of personality.
3. At the extreme end, cults of personality are absurd. (I've had to stand up to watch a short biopic glorifying the King of Thailand before watching the Hobbit). But I worry that many Americans are also underestimating how dangerous and destructive they are to democracy.
1. American pundits are often unwilling to say so because of the both-sides bias that pervades the domestic US politics sphere, but if the Republican party existed in a different country, there would be consensus in the US that it had become an authoritarian, anti-democracy party
2. There are precisely zero other rich democracies in which a major political party has a) attempted to outright reject the results of a democratic election; b) systematically tried to restrict voting rights; and c) routinely peddled lies and conspiracy theories about democracy.
3. When Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney - both staunch conservatives - are pariahs in the ostensibly conservative party because they've stood up for basic facts, have agreed to accept election results, and acted to defend rule of law, you know you've got a serious problem.
1. A thread on the Armenian genocide as Biden rightly moves to recognize it (finally) after Trump continued to deny its existence. The genocide was the systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenians under the Ottoman Empire carried out between 1914 and 1923.
2. This is one small story from the genocide, from Frances Gage, a Christian missionary who was an alumni of @CarletonCollege in Northfield, Minnesota. She wrote in diaries at the time while she was teaching at a missionary school affiliated with Carleton in Marsovan, Turkey.
3. In the summer of 1915, Turks came to the school. They had already rounded up the men and boys, but they were there to take the girls. In the end, they rounded up 63 girls. They were likely going to be killed as part of the genocide. Gage couldn't stop them from being taken.
AstraZeneca releases updated data after US row which is effectively unchanged (and efficacy is *higher* in most at-risk groups). It's a completely safe, highly effective vaccine.
Lost in all this: AZ is the only vaccine supplier selling their product at cost, under $4 per dose.
AstraZeneca has made mistakes, no question. But politicians and public health officials from France to the US should consider how their actions have also wrongly undermined confidence in a phenomenally effective, safe vaccine that is most likely to help end the pandemic globally.
In case you're wondering, the new US AZ/Oxford efficacy number was revised down from 79% to 76%, which is basically meaningless statistical noise. Efficacy rose a few points to 85% for over-65s, again likely a change that's effectively statistical noise. Highly effective. Safe.
There are many ways to repair US democracy through institutional reforms (the GOP is blocking them). But the biggest issue is the right-wing information ecosystem is just beyond broken. Democracy malfunctions when voters consume a diet of lies & conspiracy theories as truth.
How do you govern a country in which there aren't splintering views on policy but rather splintering realities? When voters self-select into right-wing fever swamps of false information, it creates a "choose your own reality" system that makes compromise and consensus impossible.
That's why the end of the Trump era isn't the end of the authoritarian threat posed by GOP extremists -- who inhabit a political sphere in which lying and peddling increasingly bizarre conspiracy theories leads not to pariah status but rather to national political stardom.
1. A big problem with modern GOP politics is that it just doesn't revolve around policy or solving problems. On the Democratic side, AOC is further left, sure, but she's laser-focused on policy solutions. The pro-Trump right isn't. It's victimhood, grievance, culture wars.
2. Instead, Republican politics is about entertainment. Politicians are characters. Will they dunk on someone on Twitter? Will they be hilarious at a frenzied rally? Will they deliver a blistering line on Fox News? Trump has made voters lose sight of what politics is for.
3. When Republicans engage with policy, it's not about fixing problems. Defund the WHO. Okay, who, precisely will that help who urgently needs it right now? Attack Fauci over masks. Again, who, precisely does that help right now? Meanwhile, Americans really need help right now.