Thread by @tshugart3

A little trip down memory lane:
One doesn't have to follow very closely the state of the U.S. Navy to know that it—and the generations-old U.S. naval primacy that has largely underwritten the modern world as we know it—is facing immense challenges now and in the future.

Over recent years China's PLA Navy has overtaken the USN in sheer numbers... cnn.com/2021/03/05/chi…

...and over a long enough timeline is on pace to do so in sheer tonnage as well, having launched more than 50% more tonnage of warships than the U.S. over the 5 year period 2015-2019: cnas.org/publications/c…

Its shipyards are overworked and far behind on competing maintenance, leaving ships sidelined for years at a time: news.usni.org/2020/08/20/gao…

Its aircraft carrier fleet is sorely strained, with some carrier strike groups facing "double-pump" deployments... news.usni.org/2020/11/12/no-…

...while the Indo-Pacific theater is apparently about to go without a U.S. single carrier strike group for the first time in many years, despite its designation as the U.S.'s primary theater of strategic competition: wsj.com/articles/the-m…

The future looks foreboding, with a mid-2020s multi-service modernization "crunch", and most observers seemingly convinced that the increased funding needed to implement the current National Defense Strategy will be unavailable due to budgetary pressures. defensenews.com/pentagon/2021/…

The USN's strategy recognizes the gravity of the situation, stating "[China’s] aggressive naval growth and modernization are eroding U.S. military advantages. Unchecked, these trends will leave the Naval Service unprepared to ensure our advantage at sea..."media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/16/20…

So, how did we get here? Did the Navy's leaders not see these challenges coming? If they did, did they demand the resources necessary to deal with them?

With last week's release of the FY22 budget which, in the face of the challenge from China actually *cuts* Navy procurement, I took a bit of time to look through what the Navy's leaders told Congress about their budgets over the last decade. news.usni.org/2021/05/28/fle…

For the FY12 budget, the Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV) told Congress: "the fiscal year 2012 President’s budget request of $161 billion...maintains our commitment to take care of our people, build a strong R&D [Research and Development] and industrial base and grow the fleet."

The Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) seemingly concurred with, "Our fiscal year 12 budget request is a balanced approach to increasing fleet capacity, maintaining warfighting readiness, and developing, and enhancing our Navy total force."

For FY13, SECNAV said: "I am pleased to report...we have developed a plan that delivers a Fleet with the same number of ships by the end of the future year’s defense plan (FYDP), as we have today—all while still meeting our fiscal obligation to support a responsible end..."

"... to our ground combat mission in Afghanistan. The fiscal year 2013–2017 shipbuilding plan maintains a flexible, balanced naval battle force that will be able to prevail in any combat situation, including in the most stressing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) environments.”

CNO: "We built our fiscal year 2013 budget submission by applying the tenets of warfighting first, operate forward, and be ready to our three enduring priorities. This approach focused our resources on investments that are most important to the Navy’s ability to be relevant..."

"...to the challenges we face as a Nation. Today, three main trends place America and our Navy at a turning point. First, the Federal Government has to get its fiscal house in order by reducing deficits and putting the Federal budget on a path toward balance. “

For FY14, SECNAV indicated that, "I can assure you that the Department has thoroughly considered the risks and applied our available resources efficiently and carefully to align our request with the President’s Defense Strategic Guidance.", and that...

“The Department will continue to maintain the capabilities required to ensure that the Navy and Marine Corps is the finest expeditionary force in the world, however proper resourcing is needed to maintain our capacity for global operations.”

CNO stated that year that, "Budget uncertainties or reductions may slow progress toward our goals, but the tenets which guide our decisions will remain firm. Along with our primary joint partner the U.S. Marine Corps we will remain America’s “force in readiness,” prepared..."

"...to promptly respond to crises overseas. On behalf of the approximately 613,000 Navy Sailors and Civilians, I appreciate the support that the Congress has given us to remain the world’s preeminent maritime force.”

For FY15, SECNAV: “PB15 continues to build the fleet of more than 300 ships we will have by the end of this decade. This fleet will include established & proven platforms which we are currently deploying, next generation platforms, and new advanced weapons, sensors, & payloads.”

CNO: "PB-15 proposes the best balance of Navy capabilities for the authorized amount of funding. It sustains sufficient afloat readiness in today’s Navy but accepts more risk while building a future fleet that is able to conduct full-spectrum operations.”

But..."beyond 2019 (the end of the PB-15 FYDP), I am increasingly concerned about our ability to fund the Ohio Replacement ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) program—our highest priority program—within our current and projected resources..."

"...The Navy cannot procure the Ohio Replacement in the 2020s within historical shipbuilding funding levels without severely impacting other Navy programs.“

Well, here we are...

CBO, 2021: "The Navy’s average shipbuilding budget would be almost 50 percent larger, on average, than those of recent years." cbo.gov/publication/57…

In FY 16, SECNAV stated, "Overall the FY16 President’s Budget balances current readiness needed to execute assigned missions while sustaining a highly capable fleet, all within a tough fiscal climate.”

CNO: "“PB16 proposes the best balance of Navy capabilities for the authorized amount of funding, & enables the Navy to conduct the ten primary missions outlined in the President’s DSG and the QDR. But, there is considerable risk. PB-16 is the absolute minimum funding needed...”

He also added, "the cumulative effect of budget shortfalls over these years has forced the Navy to accept significant risk in key mission areas, notably if the military is confronted with a technologically advanced adversary..."

About that: navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

For FY17, SECNAV stated, "Overall the FY17 President’s Budget balances current readiness needed to execute assigned missions while sustaining a highly capable Fleet, all within a continually constrained and unpredictable fiscal climate.”

CNO: "[FY17] budget request represents a portfolio of investments that employ our available resources to best effect. The gap between our responsibilities and our funding levels represents risk – risk of Sailors’ lives lost, of a weakened deterrent..."

"of a slower response to crisis or conflict, of greater financial cost, of uncertainty for our international partners – all of which affect the security & prosperity of America...I believe the balance reflected in this proposal improves our prospects going forward.”

For FY18, SECNAV: "The FY2018 President’s Budget request is properly balanced to support the needs of the United States Navy and the United States Marine Corps and ensures we are better prepared to fight and win our Nation’s battles today and in the future.”

And CNO: “The FY18 request is focused on continuing to stabilize the ship - restoring balance that will serve as a solid foundation for next year’s investments, which will...chart a course to growing our size and capabilities.”

For FY19, SECNAV: “...the PB19 budget submission will support the building of a more lethal, resilient, and agile force to deter and defeat aggression by peer competitors and other adversaries in all domains and across the conflict spectrum.”

And CNO: "The FY-19 budget submission is strategy-based, seeking a $2.4 billion increase for the Navy over FY-18 enacted levels...This funding will help us fulfill our responsibilities in the NDS by building the Navy the Nation Needs.”

For FY20, SECNAV: "“This budget prioritized a strategy driven, balanced approach to investment. It builds on prior investments, sustains the industrial base, and maintains our competitive advantage as we transition to a more cost imposing, survivable and affordable future force."

CNO: “This budget request preserves our industrial base and establishes an aggressive, forward-looking, competitive posture…PB-20 embraces future capabilities while judiciously stewarding our current force.” and...

"With timely, stable, and predictable investments, the U.S. Navy will be bigger, better, and more ready to work every day—in every ocean—to set the conditions that allow Americans and all the citizens of the world to flourish and prosper.”

For our last budget, FY21, SECNAV and CNO made a joint statement, including that, "...this budget prioritizes a strategy-driven, balanced approach to investment, informed by relentless examination of our present capabilities and realities."...

"It builds on prior investments while adjusting fire where necessary to deliver greater efficiency & effectiveness. It sustains the industrial base, & maintains our competitive advantage. Overall, this budget will deliver a more integrated, survivable, & affordable future force.”

As for FY22's essentially flat Navy budget, the Acting SECNAV has stated it, “will reflect hard choices to divest of less capable platforms and systems to invest in a powerful and superior future force...we must balance the urgent readiness needs of our force today with..."

"...investments in the future force and effective business process reforms in order to ensure our Sailors and Marines are always ready to fight and win in any clime or place.”

CNO's statement on this budget didn't seem to have the same sort of bottom-line endorsement quoted above, with a more reserved statement "We appreciate the strong support from Congress in FY-21. Delivering ships on time, on budget, and within performance targets is our priority.”

In any case, one wonders what it would take for the Navy's leaders to state unreservedly that the resources provided and planned in the President's Budget are wholly inadequate for the Navy's current and future challenges.

Perhaps they don't believe that they are. But I do.

One more thing: here is a chart of USN ship counts (the thick black line, using data from the most recent CRS report on the topic) versus the shipbuilding plans submitted under those last 10 years' budgets.