Thread by @FTusa284

@bealejonathan @jeromestarkey @larisamlbrown @nicholadrummond @TotherChris @harry_lye @thinkdefence @UKDefJournal @DefenceHQ @CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC @RUSI_org @IISS_org @benmoores2
An Ajax Gate 4 Report thread.

"Successful delivery of the programme to time, cost and quality appears to be unachievable. There are major issues which, at this stage, do not appear to be manageable or resolvable within the current Business Case approval. The programme needs to be re-baselined."

Note that currently, Ajax "fails" on time, cost AND quality. And that the current programme will not deliver. So, the current £5.5bn budget is going to be busted. And as for dates?

"The Delivery Confidence Assessment is rated Red because consistent and compelling evidence was found that programme will not deliver the planned number, of Ajax (family) armoured fighting vehicles to the British army at the required/ contracted operational capability..."

"... and price in time to support planned operational deployments in 2023-24 and the Full Operating Capability (FOC) in 2025."
So, all currently published IOC/FOC dates are fiction. Ajax is late, and will be. Remember: Ajax was selected in 2010. 15-18yrs+ to enter service...

"A clear consequence of the issues identified above is the absence of an agreed schedule to the end of the programme. Currently there are at least two, possibly more schedules and as far as the review team can judge they are using different assumptions, risks, risk appetites..."

"...and therefore cannot be easily reconciled. The variation in results are so significant the review team looked at the most optimistic schedule (provided by GD) and concluded it was only deliverable if around 8-12mths schedule slip to date could be recovered, no further slip."

"...occurred for the remainder of the programme, heroic assumptions were delivered and most importantly all significant risk was understood and quantified in the plan. Given the history since 2014 and since Recast none of those conditions had been met..."

"...assuming they all would be going forward was considered as very low probability. The review team understand DE&S is preparing a risk adjusted plan for the FOC Review note. This was not available to the review team..."

"...but it was clear from the evidence gathered at interview that there was a gathering body of evidence that supported a view that FOC would be significantly later than the GD plan and very likely to be well beyond the currently planned FOC in 2025."

Basically, anyone thinking that the programme is anywhere close to getting on track is part of the problem (@ArmyCGS). What we see, and the report says we still see is the fabled "Conspiracy of Optimism": facts bad? Pretend they don't exist. And this at £3.47bn and counting.

"Returning to quality the review team heard and read a significant body of material around the current 'quality' of the AJAX platforms. For the reasons set out above the review team could find no agreement on the actual engineering maturity of the Capability Drop 1 vehicles."

"We were regularly told 90% of the Demonstration funding had been spent and only 27% of the requirement demonstrated..."

"...the fact is the Capability Drop 1 vehicles provided to the Army can only be operated safely if soldiers follow not only the normal safety case, but also detailed guidance on operation in a wide range of conditions and under stringent limitations of use..."

"... for example limiting time in the platform to 1hr 30min before crew change or speed restrictions of 20mph. These restrictions and limitations are delaying both V&V and RGT trials and will mean the Household Cavalry Regiment..."

"...cannot conduct effective collective training on the platform. The review team was told there is a real risk exposing the Field Army to the platforms in their current condition will undermine their confidence in AJAX."

The last point is devastating: the Army is so worried about the quality and state of Ajax is SO bad, that letting more in the Army see them would undermine morale!

Enjoy!