70% chance that we are going to see another wave of COVID in parts of US in mid June through late July.
1. we are importing the Indian variant at full speed.
5 direct flights a day are still operating (4x UAL: DEL-EWR/SFO/ORD and BOM-EWR; 1x AIC: DEL-EWR)
The "travel ban" only applies to non-US residents.
Even newly admitted Indian students seem to be waived from the ban:
2. Infection rate of COVID is currently sky high in India: 50% of Australians on the Australia repatriation flight from India last Friday were denied boarding, because of +ve COVID tests or acute exposure.
I had to take more days off per doctor's orders last weekend. :( But largely recovered now.
There are a ton to write about with all the new data.
so expect daily notes (a blend of premium and free articles) on fed.tips in the next couple of weeks.
The point of this chart is that we are in a $460Bn-forced-feeding period (ending tomorrow), which is finally causing "indigestion" problems and forced deleveraging (it seems).
Details emerged from Treasury's refunding meeting this week has been quite surprising and inconsistent. The implication for stonks for the next 4-5 months could be surprising as well.
Treasury declared its TGA target for July 31st at $450Bn, while slowing down T-bill reduction.
Plugging in the current USG spending model along with EOQ TGA target of $800Bn, I ended up with this:
Not much spending until July when TGA nose-dives from $950Bn to $450Bn in 4 weeks.
A few things have happened in the past 2 weeks. 1. Tax receipts have been very strong (the economy is almost overheating from payroll data) 2. Stimulus spending has dropped to almost nothing. 3. Treasury's TGA reduction plan will have to change course in July as a result
The biggest flaw here is that if one follows the conservative approach evident in claiming all experimental antivirals are ineffective, tylenol (paracetamol) would be equally counter-productive, since it depletes glutathione
Glutathione is need in lung for uninfected cells to survive oxidative stress induced by hyperactive immune response, and for sputum clearance
NAC is essential for glutathione synthesis.
Recently a surgical technician died of suspected tylenol overdose after taking the 2nd dose of covid vaccines.
The risk of an acute covid patient overdosing on tylenol should not be neglected
Ignoring the window-dressing spike on 3/31, this sustained increase signals that the offloading of bank reserves from big banks to government money market funds has finally started.
This is a short-term relief valve for their balance sheet pressure.
Last time this happened, QE stopped 10 months after (Oct 2014)
This time, Fed may need to continue on at least with some twisting (buying 10Y-30Y bonds, while selling Tbills) for yield control purposes, as net interest expense would skyrocket otherwise.
Pressure on bank's balance sheet is likely to continue on at least into 2022.