1/ "... algorithmic is more likely to succeed [in short time windows] because this day, the market probably resembles a lot what happened yesterday.. further out, those things break down..." Dennis Lynch joincolossus.com/episodes/40040…
2/ "We're trying to win by time arbitrage or having a longer time horizon. I'm looking not this year's earnings, but three, five years plus out. And hopefully being able to then have the ability to stick with our positions .. ultimately it's a patience temperament edge." D Lynch
3/ Assume you have a demanding day job and do not have access to a team of skilled data scientists and software developers.

Are you more likely to succeed as an investor, without investing through a fund, based on:
4/ "A huge part of thinking about a business is qualitative, which is handicapping what we call uniqueness, other people call it moats or competitive advantage. What's the underlying advantage that's sustainable? How does it compare to ones we've seen historically and currently?"
5/ "Michael Mauboussin has the idea of the markets being a complex adaptive system. What that means is markets are a learning machine and constantly updating aggregated process from all the individual participants. What that means is it's always getting harder." Dennis Lynch

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More from @trengriffin

1 Jun
"5G is just the next G. We have to do it. Our capital profile is reasonably consistent over time. So monetization of 5G it’s the same game plan we’ve always had. We were focused on getting the crown jewel asset around mid-band 5G,” T-Mobile CEO M. Sievert sdxcentral.com/articles/news/…
"We kind of side-eyed cable selling wireless and said, ‘yes, they are an MVNO, they will never be able to really, but [did] very effectively. They have been more successful than we thought. Without owner economics, they can’t compete with us sustainably." fiercewireless.com/operators/t-mo…
"This year we will move from our current 60 to 80 megahertz deployed in mid-band 5G to 100 megahertz on a superior piece of spectrum, 2.5 GHz, that propagates farther.” T-Mobile' Sievert

Everything in wireless involves tradeoffs. Suite spot spectrum is many hertz not too high.
Read 4 tweets
30 May
1/ Every successful entrepreneur knows customer lifetime value (CLV) is the difference between the present value of the cash flows a customer generates over his or her lifetime and the cost to acquire the customer. This applies to my hamburger example here or a SaaS business.
2/ "A company expecting $500 in lifetime cash flow from a customer who cost $300 to acquire adds $200 to its value.

Customer NPV = PV of lifetime customer cash flows – acquisition costs." Mauboussin

The analysis is about cash flow and not GAAP earnings. hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-ec…
3/ CLV is a particularly important tool today because: 1) customer acquisition costs happen up front; and 2) GAAP requiring that the cost of intangible assets be expensed rather than capitalized makes "earnings" a potentially misleading way to determine the value of a business.
Read 7 tweets
26 May
1/ When an investor talks about "unit economics," they are taking about a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.

CLV = "the present value of cash flows that a customer generates while they are engaged with the firm minus the cost to acquire the customer." morganstanley.com/im/publication…
2/ The value of understanding the CBCV/LTV of customers was immediately apparent when I saw cable, mobile and software businesses create obvious value without GAAP earnings. By focusing on cash flow and value creation having a variant perception that generated alpha wasn't hard. Image
3/ The current customers are the basis for the steady-state value and
future customers are the source of the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO). Exhibit 1 shows the drivers of
value.

CBCV = a bottoms-up DCF of all present and future potential customers. Image
Read 5 tweets
23 May
1/ "If you compete in a field where luck plays a role, focus more on the process of how you make decisions." Michael Mauboussin

The best way to improve your own processes is to study the processes used by other people.

You aren't Howard Marks, but can learn from his process.
2/ "Be obsessive about understanding everything you possibly can about your craft. That requires you to keep learning over time. Study the history, know the pioneers. It's the bedrock foundation for what you're going to build upon." Bill Gurley jamesclear.com/great-speeches…
3/ "Develop mentors in your field. Take every chance you can to find somebody who can teach you about the field you want to excel in. You don't have to jump straight to the top on day one. Treat them with respect. Debate things, learn from them." Bill Gurley
Read 4 tweets
21 May
A friend sent me a DM and said: "This isn't a podcast. It's a conversation between two friends sharing stories as if they are in a pub." Exactly right.

This is Jim and Tren trying to make each other laugh. Not letting each other get away with anything. infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-f…
2/ Jim and I were influenced by our grandfathers who ran businesses.

In my case my mother would drop me off at his marina starting at age six. I would listen to the stories they told on his boat and I wanted to be in my own stories someday. The stories taught me about business.
3/ The people who told stories were planning a Seattle World's Fair and ran businesses like hotels and racetracks. Seattle was an open city then with lots of temptations. Many stories about the mistakes their friends made were told. Humans make mistakes was a lesson I learned.
Read 7 tweets
20 May
Recording this second follow up podcast with Jim was big fun. One theme of this conversation are the many ways we are the same and yet use different approaches to reach the same or a similar conclusion. There is no one way to successfully invest or live a full and active life.
2/ To illustrate, Jim and are friends with Michael Mauboussin. In Michael's essay released yesterday He describes my natural approach to business and investing, which is bottoms up. morganstanley.com/im/publication… Jim's natural approach is to use statistical factors. Vive la différence!
3/ My first podcast with Jim is linked to below. In our second (linked above) we discuss how our investing and business styles evolved to reflect our personalities and the people who influenced us. We talk about the dotcom era and other shared experiences.infiniteloopspodcast.com/tren-griffin-e…
Read 4 tweets

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