Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

The green/amber/red list and the role of the Joint Biosecurity Centre in those risk analyses.

Reminiscent of the JBC work on the CONTAIN framework for deciding which local authorities should be in which tiers.

A short thread.

The JBC is responsible for publishing a risk assessment that is used to determine which countries are on the green, amber, and red lists.

gov.uk/government/spe…

We can *assume* that these risk assessments have been conducted and have informed the reported move of Portugal from the green list to the amber list.

Here is how we are told they are completed

gov.uk/government/pub…

It would be useful to see these risk assessments. We are given some data (and I assume this will be updated to show why Portugal has now, reportedly, moved to the amber list)

gov.uk/government/pub…

It is not ideal for information to be leaked prior to the official annoucement being made.

https://twitter.com/WJames_Reuters/status/1400441627500482561

The JBC produced risk assessments for the CONTAIN framework last year

gov.uk/government/pub…

These informed which tiers local authorities should be in, and which restrictions should be placed on people in those local authorities.

gov.uk/guidance/covid…

These, however, were published (for a brief period of time).

See for example the PHE COVID surveillance report from 28 August. Some (limited) analysis and clear Joint Biosecurity Centre branding.

The problem is that these sorts of travel (external travel, but potentially internal travel) restrictions *can* be political rather than epidemiological.

'The US has "'Do Not Travel' as it updates advisory system to align with CDC"'
edition.cnn.com/2021/04/19/pol…

In short, there is no reason that the JBC Risk Assessments should not be published.

Doing so would reassure the public that countries are placed on (and removed from) the Green and Red travel lists for epidemiological rather than political reasons.