The Government's strategy has always been that, on repoening, cases would increase.
A short thread.
A short thread.
Cases are, indeed, increasing.
There appears to be an approximate constant rate of increase.
However, testing is very much dependent on who is tested and where testing is taking place, surge testing and the like.
There appears to be an approximate constant rate of increase.
However, testing is very much dependent on who is tested and where testing is taking place, surge testing and the like.
The Government's Roadmap has depended on four tests.
None of these tests involve cases (directly).
None of these tests involve cases (directly).
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1363881367197671425
What *is* potentially a *big* problem is an increase in hospitalizations. That's what has caused Lockdown 1, Lockdown 2, and Lockdown 3.
Hosptializations are increasing
Hosptializations are increasing
The big question is by how much, and whether exponential rises in cases mean an exponential rise in hospitalizations.
The Government's thought is that the link between cases and hospitalizations is 'decoupled'.
In practice, this means that the exponent in cases is much higher.
The Government's thought is that the link between cases and hospitalizations is 'decoupled'.
In practice, this means that the exponent in cases is much higher.
The really big question is on how much more transmissible the B.1.617.2 (newly coined 'Delta') variant is.
First reports indicate it is *much* more transmissible.
First reports indicate it is *much* more transmissible.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1398169118097002496
One question is whether the 21 June relaxations should take place. Of course, this is a change in rhetoric moving towards 'dates not data' rather than 'data not dates'
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1398631235744944130
Several things may happen:
- June 21 Step 4 removal of all restrictions
- June 21 some restrictions but not all lifted
- reintroduction of pre-Step 3 measures.
If things go wrong, any of these could lead to a reimposition of *another* lockdown (stringency to be determined).
- June 21 Step 4 removal of all restrictions
- June 21 some restrictions but not all lifted
- reintroduction of pre-Step 3 measures.
If things go wrong, any of these could lead to a reimposition of *another* lockdown (stringency to be determined).
There have always been trade-offs and we have been advised that the education of children should be prioritised.
Hopsitalizations are relatively steady (for now), but cases are rising exponentially, and rising with a high exponent (ie rising fast).
We need more data to determine whether the strategy will pay off.
The precautionary principle would be not to open up before a large ...
We need more data to determine whether the strategy will pay off.
The precautionary principle would be not to open up before a large ...
... proportion of people (people in this measure including children) being vaccinated.
And vaccinating children raises ethical questions.
And vaccinating children raises ethical questions.
The main point is:
- not everyone has been vaccinated
- not all vaccinated people have been vaccinated
- not all people have had their second dose
- vaccine takeup has not been equitable
- not everyone has been vaccinated
- not all vaccinated people have been vaccinated
- not all people have had their second dose
- vaccine takeup has not been equitable
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1397931492873949190
Cases of the variant increase significantly, and the variant poses a risk (see this thread).
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1398045066749489154
(and that should read 'not all vulnerable people have been vaccinated' rather than 'not all vaccinated people have been vaccinated'. Ahem.)
It's hard to remember, but it's only 2 weeks and a day since we went to Step 3.
It's now that hospitalizations start to appear from increased mixing.
As ever, the messages that tend to be forgotten are:
- exponential growth
- delays between infection, cases & hospitalization.
It's now that hospitalizations start to appear from increased mixing.
As ever, the messages that tend to be forgotten are:
- exponential growth
- delays between infection, cases & hospitalization.
Here is my interview with @ianpaynesport on @LBC
- we need more data
- it's only been 2 weeks since Step 3
- Delta (the new name for B.1.617.2, the 'India' variant) is much more transmissible
- finely balanced between the virus, vaccines & variants.
- we need more data
- it's only been 2 weeks since Step 3
- Delta (the new name for B.1.617.2, the 'India' variant) is much more transmissible
- finely balanced between the virus, vaccines & variants.
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