Share this page!

Aaron Astor Profile picture
Twitter logo
3 Jun, 5 tweets, 3 min read
I've suspected Sinopharm is a dud for a while now. Looks like the countries that relied on it are feeling the same. It apparently does limit severe symptoms, which is important. But it hasn't limited viral spread at all like the other vaccines have. washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/…
These are the countries that have relied on Sinopharm.
And here is UAE.
Doesn't look like fatalities have come down in these countries either.
Note that these countries have some of the highest "fully vaccinated" rates in the world. Seychelles (66.7%), Bahrain (53.8%), Chile (42.3%), UAE (35.7%), Uruguay (29.7%). All have over 50% with a first dose. So these numbers can't be blamed on too few people being vaccinated.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Aaron Astor

Aaron Astor Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AstorAaron

Aaron Astor Profile picture
2 Jun
Under-rated point about educational polarization. The 2010 Republican victory (as well as 2014) was powered by a GOP that still dominated among college-educated voters...who turn out more regularly. Increasingly pro-Dem college-educated voters will help w/ Dem turnout in 2022.
To an extent, we already saw this play out in the Georgia Senate special election. The GOP turnout drop (with Trump not on the ballot) was overwhelmingly in pro-GOP counties with very low college education levels.
Of course, it matters who is actually contesting these seats. Some Dem candidates have more appeal to college-educated voters than others. And some GOP candidates are able to hold on to college-educated voters better than others.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
23 May
This chart has me thinking about how to judge nations or US states that have handled covid best. I'm talking specifically about covid infections, not the social or economic fallout of mitigation measures. The criteria are lowest case-per-population and vaccination rates.
I'm keeping fatality rates aside for now because they tend to skew worst among the earliest hard-hit states/nations when many operated out of panic. Basically, the question is: which states/nations will come out of this pandemic with the fewest people being infected?
For the US, the top ten states (+DC) with fewest cases per population are:
1) Hawaii
2) Vermont
3) Oregon
4) Maine
5) Washington state
6) Washington, DC
7) New Hampshire
8) Maryland
9) Virginia
10) West Virginia
Read 13 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
13 May
Covid-19 has produced an ongoing epistemological crisis, meaning a problem of determining what counts as "knowledge." A lot of our debates about covid-related personal behavior and public policy stem from this problem of knowledge. Social media makes it especially acute.
Broadly speaking (and oversimplifying), there are three kinds of knowledge: logical, empirical and revealed. The first two are well-understood. Logical can be mapped symbolically. E.g. If A->B, therefore If not-B->not-A. Empirical means using the senses to gather data.
Scientists use logical and empirical methods together to produce coherent models that explain scientific phenomena. But then there is that third form: "revealed." What I mean by "revealed" is that some trusted authority declares something to be "known" and you accept it as so.
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
10 May
This has been a problem with all the "labor shortage" reporting. Every single quote is from an employer seeking workers, with lots of "theories" to explain hiring troubles. Naturally, "too much UI" is the excuse. But NO quotes from actual unemployed workers. Terrible journalism.
I mean, if the prevailing theory is that unemployed workers are just sitting back and collecting UI bc it pays more than any job, how about going out and finding somebody who says that that is what they are doing? People have admitted far more embarrassing things to reporters.
FWIW, I think there are multiple forces at work, and extended UI is probably one of them for some people. But considering the huge gender breakdown in job gains/losses in April, it's likely that childcare issues are part of it. And maybe it's connected to covid restrictions.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
10 May
These maps of WV and GA show that the only parts of Appalachia growing in population are retiree/recreation areas, urban/suburban, and university counties. Coal counties hemorrhaging population. Similar story would hold for Appalachian parts of PA, OH, KY, MD, VA, TN, NC, AL.
None of that should be surprising. It holds true for all of rural America, Appalachian or not. And in some Appalachian urban/suburban counties (Kanawha, Cabell), the pattern looks more like the Midwestern Rust Belt, with ongoing population losses.
Politically, these Appalachian retirement counties are more like 2012 Romney voters than anything else. They also show up as higher vaccination counties, esp. for 65+. Check out Loudon County, TN with Tellico Village retirees from the Midwest v. McMinn County next door.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
10 May
If you really want to know what happened in the 2020 election, don't look at exit polls. They were crap. Instead, look at this. It's the most accurate account of both the 2016 and 2020 elections. catalist.us/wh-national/
It's easy to miss the forest for the trees. For example, Latino vote preferences shifted a bit toward Trump compared to 2016. But massive increases in Latino turnout - where Latinos still voted Dem 61-37 - meant the net vote effect was to help Dems. Even more true with AAPI.
Of course, this could vary by region. And it also can upset pre-election predictions based on expected vote share. The Latino shift in the Rio Grande Valley was much greater than other places - & turnout didn't undermine it. Without it, TX would have been a bit closer.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @AstorAaron has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @AstorAaron!

Read all threads by @AstorAaron

:(