Reverse indicator, bullish Brazil over one year time horizon. Hit rate was 68 percent when we did the comprehensive lookback study in 2016.
HT Greg Marks

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More from @donnelly_brent

4 Jun
The demise of the dollar has been a popular media story throughout my entire life. Consume such stories with the understanding they have been around for 50 years. A few examples...
Same thing with US debt and deficits. Fear sells.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
Survey result 1. Economist estimates are much more clustered toward the mean than my survey respondents’ guesses because anonymous survey participants are not worried about looking stupid, unlike economists making public forecasts.

This is a known bias in economic forecasts.
Survey result 2. Question asked for your 80 percent confidence range for NFP this Friday.

Median range bottom 300
Median range top 900

A true surprise needs to be outside that range IMO
Survey result 3. #BTC
Read 5 tweets
1 Jun
There is a persistent day of the week effect in bitcoin. Sundays are red and Mondays are black. It has been particularly extreme since 2020 but even looking back to the 2014-2017 period, you can see it’s strong.

Any guesses why? All the true believing hodlers are in church? Image
In a market that trades 24/7, nobody can trade all the time. Since the trend / bias has been strongly in favor of buying throughout bitcoin’s history, maybe any drop in activity is bearish (or at least less bullish)? Sunday is the lowest volume day of the week for BTC
Most good explanations for Sunday weakness (no institutional bid?) also apply to Saturday, which makes the puzzle more confusing.

Could just be random too, of course.
Read 5 tweets

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