Here are cases in 4 regions - all showing highest rates in secondary school children - and increasing and moving up to adults over time too.
Here is data from PHE yesterday showing the the *top activity* by far for new confirmed cases was a child in school.
Data from a couple of weeks ago showing the incredibly high rates of infection in secondary school age children in variant hotspots - higher than their equally unvaccinated older counterparts.
Here is data from last week's ONS infection survey showing increasing numbers in secondary school children. This week will go up shortly.
Here is PHE data on school outbreaks from yesterday. We know from PHE that these are not complete. But we can see rapid growth - yes mirroring rapid spread of delta variant - in school outbreaks.

This does not make it ok. /END

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More from @chrischirp

31 May
THREAD Some back of the envelope examples about how things could get difficult even with vaccination.

This is *no* replacement for the proper SAGE Spi-M models but gives you the idea. (11 tweets)
Between Oct & early Jan there were about 2.3 million confirmed cases of Covid, 135K hospital admissions & 28K deaths. Hardly anyone was vaccinated.

If we had a similar situation now but WITH vaccination then cases would be lower & admissions (~25K) & deaths (~3K) MUCH lower.
I think this is what most people have in their minds when they don't believe it could get bad this summer.

And if cases on same or lower scale then that is true - vaccination (particularly of vulnerable) protects us & the NHS.
Read 12 tweets
31 May
THREAD latest on B.1.617.2 variant in England:

B.1.617.2 (1st discovered in India) is now dominant in England. Here is a thread summarising latest PHE report and Sanger local data.

TLDR: it is NOT good news. 1/7
Firstly, B.1.617.2 is now dominant in England.

This data excludes traveller data and surge testing as much as possible.

In absolute numbers, B.1.617.2 ("India") overtook B.1.1.7 ("Kent") about 15 May.
PHE report estimates a few days earlier. 2/7
B.1.617.2 is now dominant in almost every region of England.

Even NE and Yorks are catching up very fast. 3/7
Read 9 tweets
30 May
THREAD on variants & borders:

SAGE warned in Jan that a red list border policy "geographically targeted travel band" was unlikely to keep variants out.

This is because we don't know in advance where the *next* concerning variant is coming from.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/11
UK spent Jan & Feb making red list policy about variants discovered in Brazil & S Africa. But wasn't paying any attention to the situation, in say, S Asia.

SAGE also said that red list policy works best if implemented very quickly & if in countries with low UK traffic. 2/11
India has strong travel links with the UK and started its awful surge in March. By 24th March, the Indian govt was warning about a new fast spreading variant.

UK waited until 23rd April before India was added to red list - and it did work to reduce travel. But too late. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
29 May
THREAD on covid and schools:

This week, the ONS infection survey which tests a random representative sample of people in England every week, showed early increases in school age kids.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 1/7
Weekly Public Health England data from confirmed cases also shows cases highest in 10-19 year olds.

Cases rose in 5-9 & 10-19 yr olds in March when schools went back. They didn't end April / early May prob cos of low community case rates.

But now they are rising again. 2/7
Above were rates for whole of England.

If we look at the three local authorities with highest levels of new variant B.1.617.2, we can see school age kid rates are *really high* - and higher than their equally unvaxxed 20-24 yr olds. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
26 May
SHORT THREAD on Scotland & Covid:

Cases in Scotland have been going up since early May.
Cases are rising most steeply and most notably in children and young adults, but have now started rising in older groups as well (but, presumably much reduced by vaccination impact).

chart from @TravellingTabby travellingtabby.com/scotland-coron…
Many argue that it's ok cos the link between cases & hospitalisations has been broken cos of vax.

Regardless that this ignores long covid or potential for further mutation, this is NOT TRUE.

The link has been weakened but NOT broken.

Scottish admissions have started to rise.
Read 6 tweets
25 May
The latest Wellcome Sanger data on local spread of B.1.617.2 (variant of concern 1st seq in India) dropped yesterday. It tries to get at community cases by removing cases from travellers & surge testing.

All regions going up - inc NE & Yorks now.

Flattest in London & SW.
The SW has v few cases and most B.1.617.2 cases are travellers so it's not very useful data.

For London, we need to understand why that is flatterning more than everywhere else.

Also - local "lockdowns" a bit late if aim is to stop spread to other areas!
Oh and here is the overall England proportion of sequenced cases that are B.1.617.2, B.1.1.7 and other variants up to 15th May.
Also from Sanger institute.

Now almost 50% (consistent with Saturday's PHE report).
Read 4 tweets

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