Here is data from PHE yesterday showing the the *top activity* by far for new confirmed cases was a child in school.
Data from a couple of weeks ago showing the incredibly high rates of infection in secondary school age children in variant hotspots - higher than their equally unvaccinated older counterparts.
Here is data from last week's ONS infection survey showing increasing numbers in secondary school children. This week will go up shortly.
Here is PHE data on school outbreaks from yesterday. We know from PHE that these are not complete. But we can see rapid growth - yes mirroring rapid spread of delta variant - in school outbreaks.
This does not make it ok. /END
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UK spent Jan & Feb making red list policy about variants discovered in Brazil & S Africa. But wasn't paying any attention to the situation, in say, S Asia.
SAGE also said that red list policy works best if implemented very quickly & if in countries with low UK traffic. 2/11
India has strong travel links with the UK and started its awful surge in March. By 24th March, the Indian govt was warning about a new fast spreading variant.
UK waited until 23rd April before India was added to red list - and it did work to reduce travel. But too late. 3/11
This week, the ONS infection survey which tests a random representative sample of people in England every week, showed early increases in school age kids.
Weekly Public Health England data from confirmed cases also shows cases highest in 10-19 year olds.
Cases rose in 5-9 & 10-19 yr olds in March when schools went back. They didn't end April / early May prob cos of low community case rates.
But now they are rising again. 2/7
Above were rates for whole of England.
If we look at the three local authorities with highest levels of new variant B.1.617.2, we can see school age kid rates are *really high* - and higher than their equally unvaxxed 20-24 yr olds. 3/7
Cases in Scotland have been going up since early May.
Cases are rising most steeply and most notably in children and young adults, but have now started rising in older groups as well (but, presumably much reduced by vaccination impact).
The latest Wellcome Sanger data on local spread of B.1.617.2 (variant of concern 1st seq in India) dropped yesterday. It tries to get at community cases by removing cases from travellers & surge testing.
All regions going up - inc NE & Yorks now.
Flattest in London & SW.
The SW has v few cases and most B.1.617.2 cases are travellers so it's not very useful data.
For London, we need to understand why that is flatterning more than everywhere else.
Also - local "lockdowns" a bit late if aim is to stop spread to other areas!
Oh and here is the overall England proportion of sequenced cases that are B.1.617.2, B.1.1.7 and other variants up to 15th May.
Also from Sanger institute.
Now almost 50% (consistent with Saturday's PHE report).