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Sam Trabucco Profile picture
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4 Jun, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Let’s just say @SBF_Alameda was lied to about what “Tradjng Day” was gonna be Image
“We host the world’s best athletes and the world’s best entertainers, and we’re thrilled to welcome FTX” Image
“I may be the shortest one here” Image
“Being able to get here is synonymous with being able to get where we’re going” Image
I love beating witness to all this and to sharing in it to whatever extent I do, but more than that I love watching my friend @SBF_Alameda fucking kill it every time:
^that was typo-ridden huh
Surreal Image

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

Sam Trabucco Profile picture
7 Jun
I'll be honest -- I was dreading this conference. I'm not great at meeting strangers, I dislike much of networking, I was vaguely concerned that crypto culture might be toxic in person, and I'm not wild about public speaking. Also, Miami is so hot.
How wrong I was! I enjoyed basically the entire trip -- it managed to be productive, invigorating, sentimental, and super fun all at once.
I was pretty sure the perfect timing + chance to speak meant this was the only conference I'd ever attend, but now I doubt it.

A thread about being wrong and not really making money but "generating personal value" or something.
Read 25 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
3 Jun
On a plane to Miami, thinking about the topic of the panel i’m on: Is it possible to time the market? It’s a great question, and one my priors were REALLY wrong about.

A thread about being wrong and making money.
My initial training in quant trading came at SIG, trading more traditional assets than crypto (let’s hear it for fixed income ETFs). These are markets that have existed forever, and many large, skilled firms have traded them forever.
In these markets, it’s really hard for there to be large, fairly obvious, predictable moves — if those existed, these big quant firms would have figured them out too and arbed them out (or similar).
Read 14 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
23 May
BTW not to be a downer but the stablecoin supply being up is less obviously +++ than a lot of people have claimed.

There are plenty of reasons why it could be good -- more USD flowing into the ecosystem could of course be used for buying crypto ...

... but, it could also be used to be parked in a yield farm, or as collateral for someone trying to get super short, or whatever.

Also, consider a common trade -- USDT gets really rich, MMs (such as Alameda) create USDT to sell it >1. This increases stablecoin supply!
Why does USDT (or any stablecoin) get rich? Various reasons -- maybe people really need something USD-like and so bid it up (because they're not creating for whatever reason). But maybe the BTC/USDT market has significant activity.
Read 6 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
23 May
FWIW this is the sort of move which hasn't happened in quite some time:
- big moves have basically all been driven by liquidations lately
- ESPECIALLY "low-liquidity" ones such as on weekends
So I think looking to data for the answer about what to expect as the weekend wraps up and liquidity increases is misguided -- intuition is likely gonna beat it.

What does intuition say?
Let's think about the features which distinguish this move / set of market conditions from other ones.

First: low liquidity and low volume.
Read 16 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
20 May
Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?

A thread about lemons and lemonade.
The narrative in the winter was clear: institutions were getting into crypto and that's why crypto rallied so much. This mostly happened in BTC, but the other coins mostly had a beta to BTC so they all rallied some, too.

Simple enough.
More recently, the rumors turned to ETH. Now, institutions were getting into ETH, too! And some other coins, but at least for the past couple weeks, the ETH rally was The Big Thing happening (ignoring DOGE). Look at that ETH/BTC over-performance! BTC dominance was at a local min.
Read 23 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
11 May
I throw the term "expected value" (EV for short) around a lot. What is it, and, more important, why is it the thing that matters?

A thread about the median and the mean.
Let's step back from trading and focus on an idealized situation which is sorta like trading. Say you've got $10 and all you're allowed to do with it is pay $10 to flip a coin which comes up heads 55% of the time, and you win $20 when it does. You can play as much as you want.
The *expected value* (EV) of each flip is

-$10 (cost of playing) + $.55 * 20 = $1

Meaning that each time you play, you're expected to make $1. Pretty good!
Read 25 tweets

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