I'll be honest -- I was dreading this conference. I'm not great at meeting strangers, I dislike much of networking, I was vaguely concerned that crypto culture might be toxic in person, and I'm not wild about public speaking. Also, Miami is so hot.
How wrong I was! I enjoyed basically the entire trip -- it managed to be productive, invigorating, sentimental, and super fun all at once.
I was pretty sure the perfect timing + chance to speak meant this was the only conference I'd ever attend, but now I doubt it.

A thread about being wrong and not really making money but "generating personal value" or something.

Honestly, I didn't do that much work. @rsalame7926 asked me to sound like a nerd to some people a few times to lend credibility, but mostly I tried to meet a bunch of our OTC/etc. counterparties without a specific agenda.

And this still felt productive to me!
The counterparties we have strong relationships with tend to
- make both sides more $
- involve way less of a settlement headache
- be more fun to participate in
So strengthening those relationships is really great, and I'm not *totally* useless at this.
And our panel went well! And spurred a bunch of people to come up to me throughout the rest of the weekend to ask stuff, which I always enjoy.

It's a little hard to explain this, but I'm more excited about crypto than I have been in a long time. Seeing so many people working on things:
- passionately
- skillfully
- which I'm also passionate about
Had a stronger effect on me than I expected.
This was true for people outside of Alameda and FTX and BlockFolio and Solana and the other projects/teams I already cared a ton about, but I found meeting the people from those teams the most fun.

To single out just one such interaction, Brett (FTX US's new-ish president) posted some thoughts on the conference here, too -- meeting and learning about his plans for the future was a definite highlight, he's super smart and has great ideas.

There's nothing like seeing capable and hard-working people working hard at what they care about, and it inspires me to keep trying to do the same thing.

When @SBF_Alameda and co. started working basically full-time on FTX a few years ago, it was honestly rough going for a while for Alameda. Our trading team was small, our dev team was smaller, and we had the new giant challenge of market making on FTX.
This was WAY more intense than any of our other market making obligations -- we wanted to provide amazing liquidity from day one, and it turns out that doing that without knowing you have the fastest data and best models for EVERYTHING is a recipe for disaster.
It took Alameda a lot of work to both do this and fill in the gaps left by our team shrinking so much -- we're still playing catch-up, in some ways. And of course the FTX team has worked extraordinarily hard for the past few years, as well.
These efforts have led to incredible results -- Alameda has managed to be WAY more profitable than we ever were pre-FTX on a substantially larger capital base all while no longer really having bad problems with MMing, and I don't need to explain FTX's success.
Getting to share in all that has been amazing, and this weekend we got to see one of the biggest tangible signs of this success -- which gave us a rare opportunity to take pause and think about how amazing this all is.

More generally I kept having opportunities to reflect on how much my life has changed since I started trading crypto, and the ways in which all of this stuff can be directly tied to like, a few important decisions and pieces of great luck.

(Which isn't an especially useful thought honestly :P given that it's true for everything ever, the magnitude of late have just made it feel weighty or something.)
And being around so many people who were feeling similar things has a magnifying effect -- and also highlighted just impactful this might actually be.

Mostly, the whole trip was just really fun. Getting to meet great people I'd never met + see lots of friends I'd not seen in ages (+ @rsalame7926 which was decidedly meh) was a blast, and the nonstop action (outside the conference itself) has been much-needed lately.
Tons of parties, spending time outside, witnessing a historic boxing anti-climax live, and chilling with lots of awesome people for 4 days straight is always gonna be great -- that they were also generally people sharing in the same sort of euphoria I was made it even better.
This is specific to me, but crypto's bro-y culture can feel alienating -- or at least feel like it's going to be, which sort of pre-alienates. That barely happened, I've actually never felt more like "one of the guys" than I did at points this weekend (with a few sets of people).
(Which isn't to say elements of this culture aren't toxic for some people, just that an axis along which I guessed there would be toxicity pleasantly surprised me.)
I literally missed two flights (one intentionally, one less so) out of here to extend hanging out with some people, and ended up having a weirdly great night as a result. Sitting in the airport right now writing this on no sleep isn't awesome but that's the price you pay.
Also, yesterday @ledgerstatus (who I had just met) gave me a pair of pants from his suitcase because I was wearing shorts and needed pants.
Overall I was just having fun the entire time and also achieving a lot (work- and catharsis-wise), which is something I was worried wouldn't happen. And I feel like if I enjoyed this, probably many other people will enjoy stuff like it in the future.

Hope to see you there!

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

4 Jun
Let’s just say @SBF_Alameda was lied to about what “Tradjng Day” was gonna be Image
“We host the world’s best athletes and the world’s best entertainers, and we’re thrilled to welcome FTX” Image
“I may be the shortest one here” Image
Read 7 tweets
3 Jun
On a plane to Miami, thinking about the topic of the panel i’m on: Is it possible to time the market? It’s a great question, and one my priors were REALLY wrong about.

A thread about being wrong and making money.
My initial training in quant trading came at SIG, trading more traditional assets than crypto (let’s hear it for fixed income ETFs). These are markets that have existed forever, and many large, skilled firms have traded them forever.
In these markets, it’s really hard for there to be large, fairly obvious, predictable moves — if those existed, these big quant firms would have figured them out too and arbed them out (or similar).
Read 14 tweets
23 May
BTW not to be a downer but the stablecoin supply being up is less obviously +++ than a lot of people have claimed.

There are plenty of reasons why it could be good -- more USD flowing into the ecosystem could of course be used for buying crypto ...

... but, it could also be used to be parked in a yield farm, or as collateral for someone trying to get super short, or whatever.

Also, consider a common trade -- USDT gets really rich, MMs (such as Alameda) create USDT to sell it >1. This increases stablecoin supply!
Why does USDT (or any stablecoin) get rich? Various reasons -- maybe people really need something USD-like and so bid it up (because they're not creating for whatever reason). But maybe the BTC/USDT market has significant activity.
Read 6 tweets
23 May
FWIW this is the sort of move which hasn't happened in quite some time:
- big moves have basically all been driven by liquidations lately
- ESPECIALLY "low-liquidity" ones such as on weekends
So I think looking to data for the answer about what to expect as the weekend wraps up and liquidity increases is misguided -- intuition is likely gonna beat it.

What does intuition say?
Let's think about the features which distinguish this move / set of market conditions from other ones.

First: low liquidity and low volume.
Read 16 tweets
20 May
Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?

A thread about lemons and lemonade.
The narrative in the winter was clear: institutions were getting into crypto and that's why crypto rallied so much. This mostly happened in BTC, but the other coins mostly had a beta to BTC so they all rallied some, too.

Simple enough.
More recently, the rumors turned to ETH. Now, institutions were getting into ETH, too! And some other coins, but at least for the past couple weeks, the ETH rally was The Big Thing happening (ignoring DOGE). Look at that ETH/BTC over-performance! BTC dominance was at a local min.
Read 23 tweets
11 May
I throw the term "expected value" (EV for short) around a lot. What is it, and, more important, why is it the thing that matters?

A thread about the median and the mean.
Let's step back from trading and focus on an idealized situation which is sorta like trading. Say you've got $10 and all you're allowed to do with it is pay $10 to flip a coin which comes up heads 55% of the time, and you win $20 when it does. You can play as much as you want.
The *expected value* (EV) of each flip is

-$10 (cost of playing) + $.55 * 20 = $1

Meaning that each time you play, you're expected to make $1. Pretty good!
Read 25 tweets

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