I had written an article on 24th April 20, day after @FTIIndia winding up schemes
In the end, I had mentioned a few points on what to expect going forward. Let me take each point and see where we stand today.
Link of my April 2020 article for ready reference: bit.ly/3pmMbNk
Point No 1:
This is not delay or default and no haircuts so far
FM was asking time for reversal of Risk Aversion & markets to stabilise & normalise
Proven correct
Point No: 2
This is to give better value to Investors at cost of delayed liquidity
Again proven correct from almost 71% collections so far at far better values than on the date of winding up
Point No 3:
NAVs will be announced on daily basis;funds will accrue income,capital gains/loss based on value of underlying securities.Exactly as they would have if the schemes were open for purchase or redemption
Point No 4:
FT may sell these securities at appropriate value (maybe at profits as well) if markets normalize and risk appetite of banks is restored
Proven correct. Securities sold at much better valuations than prevalent on 23rd Apr 2020. Visible from returns in these schemes
Point No 5:
Investors should expect better realization of underlying securities v/s if they are forced to sell based on redemption pressures currently.
Proven correct. By giving time to FM, for markets to stabilise, interest rates having softened, huge upside in realizations
At this pace of monetizing securities of wound up schemes, I personally believe that Investors will get their full money much sooner than their expectations.
Just some more patience required and hope for that saying:
"ALL'S WELL THAT ENDS WELL".
Finally, Investors should be happy with the outcome so far:
1. Current NAVs of all schemes are higher than NAVs as on 23 Apr 2020 2. Reflected in huge positive returns generated by these schemes so far 3. Some segregated doubtful portfolios have been realised & repaid back
Just goes to prove that if they were not confronted with frivolous legal cases and wasted precious time in litigation, investors could have received their funds back sooner than later
Investors have short memories and wish to dissect market phases based on what suits their sensibilities.
Current hot topic of discussions on Social Media:
How Mid and Small Caps have delivered stupendous returns since March 2020
What they have conveniently forgotten is their recent past experience of investing in Mid & Small Caps from Jan 18 to Dec 19 and till Mar 20
Above table shows entire journey of same Indices over different time periods vs 2 popular DAAF schemes and vs Smart Solution of MisterBond
Many have questioned our exit from Equity in July 2020(after entries in March 2020):
As @morganhousel has mentioned in his book:
It is not being conservative but creating Margin of Safety. This raises odds of success at a given level of risk by raising your chance of survival
MisterBond's Rankings as on May 30'2021: From 01-04-15 to 30-05-21
Rankings of only those which were in existence from 01-04-15
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3 Types of Rankings: 1) IHR: Investor High Returns - Higher returns in higher return bands 2) IER: Investor Experience Returns - IHR adjusted for Volatility 3) % of observations of each scheme beating Industry Average
Large Cap Scheme Rankings:
Industry Avg: 8.50%
Number of Observations Completing 5 years: 284
Based on 5 year rolling returns
People are going Ga Ga on Markets crossing 14000 NIFTY. My take on this:
1. Most Retail Investors had exited in March 2020 crash 2. They waited for further correction to enter - that never happened 3. Most have been only waiting on the sidelines without participating
From July 2017 to Dec 2020,
NIFTY 50 posted + 11.50%
NIFTY Midcap has just managed to break even and come into +4% plus &
NIFTY Small Cap still not recovered full loss ( -1.50% )
Which just goes to show that those under Buy & Hold are only recouping their losses and have not managed to participate fully in post March 2020 rally.
Khaas Baat with MisterBond in conversation with Padma Bhushan @Abhinav_Bindra. One of the most inspiring stories of the only Indian to have won an Olympic Gold Medal:
Qualitative analysis should include: 1. FM track record 2. Sector/Stock selection based on different Business Cycles 3. Scheme to FM ratio 4. Turnover ratio 5. Frequency of NFOs
Very important to identify macros for different Business Cycles that can be divided into:
1. Growth 2. Recession 3. Slump 4. Recovery
All need to be identified based on different characteristics of each cycle