A common Q: “how can COVID hospitalisations in UK still grow if vaccine % high?” Answer: look at the data. Average was ~120 daily COVID admissions over past week. These would have been infected about 2-3 weeks earlier, when case numbers ~2000 per day. This shows two things... 1/
First, there was still a group at risk of hospitalisation a few weeks ago. And second, this risk was large enough to show up as hundred of admissions in recent data, even though cases were at relatively low levels. 2/
So the key question here: if case numbers were to grow X times larger, why wouldn’t hospitalisations also grow X times larger? 3/
Obviously vaccine % has further increased in recent weeks, and groups being hospitalised now aren’t necessarily same as those hospitalised earlier in year. But worth bearing above numbers in mind if tempted to get anchored to idea that rise in hospitalisations isn't possible. 4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
