Bravo Tesla on "improved" disclosure. When screwing the customer, let 'em know it up front. Gas is at prices last seen in '14, so good thing for a Tesla's gas savings - except you already paid for it. What? Let’s build a car. How about a practical Model 3. Base price $35,690. 1/ Image
Recently, the customer was informed that gas savings would be $4,300 (more on other models) on the first page of the build, with the final price a surprise at the end. The upfront language is now altered, some would say transparent, some may say obfuscating. You be the judge. 2/
Let’s keep it simple and avoid upcharges by sticking with standard options - Pearl White paint, 18” wheels and All-Black interior. Let’s skip the $10,000 Full Self-Driving as well for now, since we’re now told "regulatory approval may take longer, in some jurisdictions." Sure. 3/ Image
Now let’s order this bad boy. Wait, what? My $35,690 initial price is higher and INCLUDES the gas savings? Tesla is charging upfront for the gas savings having told the customer at the outset that the base price was lower. Tesla gets the benefit? Who would spin it this way? 4/ Image
Grant Williams @ttmygh and I discussed this on his podcast a few weeks ago. Since then, the language changed to what you are seeing here. It's clear the optics were really bad. Now they are just bad. It was surprising (maybe) seeing the recent change. 5/
grant-williams.com/podcast/the-gr…
Note the tab at the bottom with the difference between “purchase price” & “after potential savings.” The difference represents gasoline savings and can be seen only by clicking on “Show Details.” This appears to be a new disclosure. You'll save, but we're charging you for it! 6/ Image
Elon killed the pay w Bitcoin "feature", thus the customer forfeits the "opportunity" to be refunded in #Bitcoin or legal tender, AT TESLA'S CHOICE. The old tails the customer loses heads Tesla wins trick. Optics here were poor so likely little to do with the impact of mining. 7/
But who wouldn’t want to gloat to their envious friends about having paid with crypto. C'est la vie. Of course with @elonmusk now squarely at war with the Bitcoiners, he's likely sold the rest of the position. The profit on sale will come in handy when reporting 2Q earnings. 8/
Despite Tesla keeping your gasoline savings and adding it to the purchase price, it will all be worth it when you get your new Tesla home. Plug it in and you’ll be ready to go in, oh, about a week. You see, your new car comes standard with a 110-volt charging adapter. 9/
Want a faster charge than 2-4 miles of range per hour of charge? You’ll need a wall connector & a 240V outlet, which will likely require an electrician. Cost? Not free. You weren't told that when ordering? No garage or nearby outlets at your condo? Not sure what to tell you. 10/
Find a really long extension cord or a public charging station & shop for an hour each time you need a charge. That's economic stimulus for you. Driving cross country? Enjoy the leisurely trip & long stops aplenty. Trust me, I won't be yielding my 25-gallon tank anytime soon. 11/
Now to insure your Tesla. Is the cost of insurance higher or lower than on comparable vehicles at like price points? Given that severities and frequencies are way higher, prices are too. But Elon is solving this. I received the following last night from @fly4dat. Thanks, Fly. 12/ Image
While its fascinating to correspond with insects here on Twitter, smart insects at that, so too was Elon's reply to a sticker-shocked customer. This was 2019, with a fix only months away. The more one observes Tesla, the more one observes being always at a moving goal line. 13/ Image
By way of disclosure, I have a very small short position in $TSLA. This note is not investment advice. Do your own research. Stocks are volatile and shorting is extremely dangerous. With shorting, upside is capped and downside is unlimited. $TSLA rose 8x in '20. 14/
As seen recently with meme stocks, shorting can bankrupt the speculator. A 10x move on a 1% position becomes 10%. Another 10x and its 100%. You are wiped out well prior. There are costs to shorting & you are fighting the retention of earnings (when they exist) and inflation. 15/
The case against Tesla centers on valuation, but the degree to which Tesla treats constituents is remarkable. Shareholders, customers, employees, regulators are all abused, the polar opposite of how companies like Costco behave...Meanwhile, build a car and enjoy the savings. Image

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More from @ChrisBloomstran

1 Jun
Ten years? Did you read the disclosure in YOUR letter stating YOUR returns begin on 6/1/11, or did you forget when you launched your first fund? You don’t appear to even have a ten-year track record, @chamath. Looks like 9 yrs 7 mos. The whole thing is confusing. Intentional? 1/ Image
Are you desperate to include Berkshire’s 48.7% decline and the S&P 500’s 26.4% drop in your “long-run” comparison? Actually, it appears that you do have a 10-year record. As of tomorrow...Of course a year-to-date presentation would have to include the losses on the four SPACs. 2/
Next, I’m very confused by your reply stating, “the discrepancy in your S&P returns vs ours is because we calculated it as an IRR based on when we made our investments.” What is “IT?” You label your returns as IRR, but are you saying you calculated index returns as an IRR? 3/
Read 8 tweets
30 May
I read your 2020 annual letter with interest, @chamath. Odd it was published in late May, but we’re all busy. Before commenting on this incredibly bad take of a comparison to Berkshire Hathaway, allow me to help you with some math. First, 1965 to 1974 is TEN years, not nine. 1/ Image
Berkshire did return 12.5% against 1.4% from 1965-1974 but that’s actually ten, not the nine years you reference. Simple mistake, I’m sure. Had you used nine years Berkshire had returned 22.7% annually, quite a bit higher than the 12.5% you errantly show. More on this soon. 2/
Second, for what its worth, the S&P 500 actually returned 18.4% in 2020, not the 17.88% you mentioned twice and were careful to point out included dividends. I’d rather round to the tenths, check my source and be correct than round to the hundredths and be precisely incorrect. 3/ Image
Read 23 tweets
26 May
Strange seeing a $LMND thread deleted "justifying" a 121% gross loss, 50 points from the TX freeze alone & use of AI to deny claims by detecting lying in recorded messages. Stranger still seeing yet another new entrant into the private passenger auto game. Will they not learn? 1/
Fin-tech often means even though we light cash on fire it must be worth a fortune. If you gave me $1.5 billion and said go disrupt some industry, property/casualty insurance would NOT be it. It's remarkable some of the things that get financed in the name of disruption. 2/
For a company that’s raised $1.5 billion to disrupt renter, pet health and homeowners insurance, writing a cumulative $185 million to lose a cumulative $369 million seems like a bad idea. Now Lemonade will go after Progressive, GEICO and the heavyweights in auto? Smart. 3/
Read 19 tweets
25 May
This is not a comparison I'd make, Gary. Completely different businesses, completely different capital requirements and structural profitability. At the end of 2017 $AMZN earned a net margin of 1.3%, but anybody who understood the company knew the margin was headed way higher. 1/
It took no fanciful dreaming to understand $AMZN's net margin would likely grow to perhaps 10% over the next decade, a 10x increase. Investors knew they weren't paying anywhere near the 250x-300x multiple to earnings you suggest, but far less to a realistic achievable margin. 2/
The net margin has already grown to 6.4% over the last year and 7.5% in the most recent quarter. Importantly, Amazon's enormous capital requirement to grow was clearly scalable. Capex will now match depreciation & returns on equity net of the enormous cash balance are mid 20s. 3/
Read 9 tweets
25 May
I’ve read this Brainard speech three times. Some takeaways:

Private money/crypto? We will kill you.

Stablecoins? We will kill you.

Cash? It will be digital and our liability. All of it. Kiss paper fiat goodbye.

The unbanked? You will be banked. We will be the bank. 1/
Payments, clearing, and settlement providers? We will help you (Read: We will disintermediate you and your profits).

Currency and bank accounts? We will complement you (Read: We and our international colleagues will disintermediate you and your profits). 2/
Privacy? Kiss it goodbye in the name of eliminating illicit activities.

Who knows where CBDCs wind up, but the Fed doesn’t float trial balloons for grins. The ability to print and send money directly to citizens in times of crisis circumvents the Federal Reserve Act. 3/
Read 4 tweets
20 May
Investments are occasionally priced dangerously far in excess of value. Commodities and speculations as well. When prices rise to where only a fool would buy from you at a higher price, that’s the Greater Fool Theory. Here’s a proven method for knowing you own such an asset...1/
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Read 4 tweets

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