Thread by @marcushjohnson

I want to write a response to this narrative at some pt—the argument that Dems need to focus on economic issues and put social issues on the back burner is a bad one. It presumes marginalized groups like poc will still turnout for Dems if they reduce talk about race.

https://twitter.com/foreignpolicy/status/1400875072651399174

It also presumes that the Dem position on social issues is untenable while the GOP position is closer to the American mainstream. There’s a wide range of pub opinion polls which show Americans on avg are closer to the Dem position on cultural issues than GOP.

It also doesn’t reckon with the GOP’s disconnect on economic issues. We constantly hear calls for Dems to drop cultural concerns but few calls for GOP to move their economic positions closer to the median voter.

What the piece misses—and what I think most of the cultural critics of the Dem Party miss—is this is a structural demographic argument. Social cons vote against Dems, increasingly since 60s, bc it is the party of poc. There’s widespread fear of demographic change.

Dems talking less about cultural issues does nothing to stop the real reason social cons vote for right parties (in US or EU) fear of demo change and increasing minority political power.

However Dems dropping cultural/social issues to focus on economics will create disillusionment with a non trivial percentage of nonwhite voters. This percentage can decide elections.

For instance, let’s take a look at some (quick) examples. Dropping (or reducing emphasis on) cultural issues like racism, policing, immigration will very likely have a negative turnout effect on the types of minority demos Dems need to win.

The Asian American vote has also trended more towards Democrats over time.

I contend that proponents of the “Dems should drop cultural issues” theory are truly arguing that left parties can keep poc votes engaged while de emphasizing or flat out ignoring social issues that really matter to them. I think that is totally wrong.

I also believe the proponents of the theory fundamentally get the reasons why Trumpism (and far right parties in Europe) have political success wrong. It isnt left parties making economics less salient. Its just minorities existing and becoming a bigger share of the electorate

Thus in my view there is nothing Dems (or left parties in Europe) can do to win socially conservative voters back in significant numbers, short of pushing minorities out of politics. Which of course is politically untenable and morally wrong.

In Europe that is problematic for the left since white voters are a much larger share of the electorate. In the US that is not the case. I think the “drop cultural issues” proponents are far too optimistic about the Republican Party’s future.

The Republican coalition is aging and shrinking. They do not even compete for the popular vote in Presidential elections anymore. Literally don’t even try. Their power is amplified by the anti-majoritian bias of the Senate. This has to be acknowledged in these debates.

Texas is trending the same way Georgia and Virginia have. A future where the Dems exchange the rust belt (shrinking pop, house seats, ec votes) for the sun belt (the opposite) is one where Dems are increasingly favored to win the Presidency.

Absent major demographic trend changes or major GOP ideological changes, the GOP is going to become a minority party that has outsized power in the Senate with diminishing ability to win the Presidency. If Biden wins in 24 GOP will have LOST 6/9 last Prez elex.

In a political system where the President sets the agenda and increasingly has centralized power that is good for Democrats. Democrats are on the right path (for this country’s set of conditions) and abandoning their coalition to chase wwc is a bad political move.