Let's talk about COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in England - and the effects of the vaccine.
Here's a look at how many cases it takes per additional hospitalisation (assuming a 7 day delay) and how many hospitalisations it takes per death in hospital (ditto).
1/N
Here's a look at how many cases it takes per additional hospitalisation (assuming a 7 day delay) and how many hospitalisations it takes per death in hospital (ditto).
1/N
At the beginning of the pandemic, we were in the dark as far as case numbers. It was only at the end of June 2020 that we passed 100,000 tests a day (indicated by the vertical green line on the graph).
That makes drawing conclusions about cases early in the pandemic v hard.
2/N
That makes drawing conclusions about cases early in the pandemic v hard.
2/N
The blue line represents the number of new cases it takes to produce one new hospitalisation (after a 7-day lag).
As you can see, that's been anywhere between 2 and 25+ new cases.
We're at or close to the best ever ratio. That is likely to be the effect of the vaccine.
3/N
As you can see, that's been anywhere between 2 and 25+ new cases.
We're at or close to the best ever ratio. That is likely to be the effect of the vaccine.
3/N
The orange line represents the number of hospitalisations per hospital death (after a 7-day lag).
That has fluctuated from a low of 5 hospitalisations/death at the grim height of the second wave to over 20 hospitalisations/death now.
Again, we're close to the best ratio.
4/N
That has fluctuated from a low of 5 hospitalisations/death at the grim height of the second wave to over 20 hospitalisations/death now.
Again, we're close to the best ratio.
4/N
So if we think of the pandemic as a conveyor belt...
1. A certain number of cases go in.
2. 7 days later (simplistic time lag, for modelling purposes) those cases lead to hospitalisations.
3. 7 further days later, those hospitalisations lead to deaths.
5/N
1. A certain number of cases go in.
2. 7 days later (simplistic time lag, for modelling purposes) those cases lead to hospitalisations.
3. 7 further days later, those hospitalisations lead to deaths.
5/N
Right now, thanks to better treatment expertise and the effects of the vaccine, we seem to be hovering around...
22-28 new cases per hospitalisation.
and
20-25 hospitalisations per death.
That implies that we will see one death for around every 500 new cases we detect.
6/N
22-28 new cases per hospitalisation.
and
20-25 hospitalisations per death.
That implies that we will see one death for around every 500 new cases we detect.
6/N
The above doesn't account for the effects of the more potent Delta (Indian) variant, because most Delta infections happened too recently to impact hospitalisations and deaths yet.
It's possible that the vaccine will insulate us effectively. Or we may see the ratios worsen.
7/N
It's possible that the vaccine will insulate us effectively. Or we may see the ratios worsen.
7/N
But what we can at least say is that, right now, around 1 in 500 confirmed cases of COVID-19 will die.
So if we end up with double the cases because the virus spreads, we might expect double the deaths.
The next few weeks will confirm if that's still the case or not.
8/N
So if we end up with double the cases because the virus spreads, we might expect double the deaths.
The next few weeks will confirm if that's still the case or not.
8/N
DATA UNDERLYING THE ABOVE
Deaths in hospital in England
england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Cases by specimen date (by area; England data)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
People admitted to hospital (by area; England data)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…
/END
Deaths in hospital in England
england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Cases by specimen date (by area; England data)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
People admitted to hospital (by area; England data)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…
/END
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