1) Manchin and Murkowski both need voting rights legislation to pass in order to get reelected in their red states (Murkowski will be primaried from the right). It’s why voting rights legislation will ultimately pass. But neither wants to be seen as rigging their own reelection.
2) What I mean by that is they’ll each face a far right reelection opponent who will accuse them of having “rigged” their own reelection by supporting voting rights legislation. And a lot of red state voters will fall for this line of crap.
3) So yeah, Manchin is doing everything he can to give the appearance that he’s against voting rights legislation, because that helps him in his reelection bid. But he’ll have to pass voting rights legislation, because that also helps him in his reelection bid.
4) So what you’re seeing right now is a very awkward dance from a mediocre politician who’s trying to be so loud about opposing voting rights legislation, no one notices when he ends up quietly voting for it.
5) And when I say “mediocre politician” I mean he’s not as slick at selling this line of shit or walking this tightrope as he’d like to be. A slicker or savvier politician would have an easier time of pulling off this particular balancing act.
6) At this point it appears Manchin wants to pass the key parts of HR1, but he doesn’t want to vote for something called “HR1.” Why does this distinction matter? He can then campaign in his red state on having killed HR1, while having also enacted HR1.
7) Biden and Schumer are going to let Manchin play this semantic game as long as it gets passed in the end. Both because it’s the smart way to play it, and because it’s only way to play it. They can’t just bop him on the head and magically get results; this isn’t a cartoon.
8) As I like to say, 95% of politics takes place behind the scenes. Biden and Schumer aren’t doing “nothing” just because they’re not publicly setting their hair on fire. Their job isn’t to dance for your entertainment. It’s to get results for you behind the scenes.
9) It’s notable that Manchin and Murkowski seem to be in lockstep on voting rights legislation. Makes sense. They’re close. And they give each other “bipartisan” cover no matter how this plays out.
10) Maybe Biden will offer Murkowski some things this week, to put the heat on Manchin. But it’s not as if Murkowski is going to heroically turn against Manchin, like in some movie. If anything, Murkoski could convince Manchin to come with her on whatever Biden offers.
11) Contrary to the fiction that gets tossed around on Twitter, Manchin actually voted with the Democrats far far far far far more often than Murkowski (look it up). So this sudden notion of Mirkowsko being better than Manchin, or Murkowski becoming a Democrat, is laughable.
12) Then there’s Sinema, who’s doing a terrible John McCain “maverick” imitation. She’s looking for an opportunity to jump in and cast a heroic vote and (in her mind) be the hero. The rest of us will just wonder why she acted like a buffoon before finally voting correctly.
13) In any case, our job is to keep as much pressure on Manchin, Murkowski, and Sinema as possible. But you MUST approach it with the mindset that you’re going to successfully pressure them into caving. If you just rant about how they’ll vote wrong no matter what, you’ve lost.
14) Finally, don’t forget that politicians are only ever trying to set the stage when they speak publicly. You all think Manchin is dishonest, so why on earth would you believe him when he says he intends to vote a certain way? Ignore his words. Fight like you’re going to win.
15) And don’t forget: Biden is the most effective Senate wrangler of the past 50 years. Schumer takes his cues from Pelosi, who’s great at this. They’re much better at this than Manchin or Sinema. Why would you presume Biden is going to lose this battle to those two lightweights?

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More from @PalmerReport

9 Jun
You all MUST get over the fictional doomsday narrative that voting rights legislation has to pass right this second or we're all dead. That's nonsense. Back in the real world, voting rights doesn't have to pass any time soon. It just has to pass before the midterms – and it will.
I could get ten times as many likes, retweets, followers, and page views if I were willing to push the doomsday hyperbole that voting rights legislation must happen right this second or ALL HOPE IS LOST. But I refuse to push that crap, because it's false. And counter productive.
Most liberal pundits only exist to sell you this doomsday hyperbole, so you'll give them likes and retweets, and so you'll believe they're smarter and fiercer than the Democratic Party leadership. Your job is to not fall for this sky is falling nonsense. It'll paralyze you.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
The biggest piece of fiction in all of politics is that Mitch McConnell had some kind of magic wand control over his caucus. He did not. He spent forever wrestling with Collins, Murkowski, etc, on every bill. It was an ugly, slow, tortured process. Always that way on both sides.
The problem is that the media spent four years pretending McConnell was instantly getting everything he wanted without any difficulty. Even though your eyes kept showing you that this was never remotely true, the media has convinced you to believe it anyway.
So now that you believe a fictional previous four years where McConnell magically got everything in an instant, you’re outraged that Schumer isn’t able to pull off the same magic. Except in reality McConnell was constantly plagued by exactly what Schumer is plagued with.
Read 12 tweets
7 Jun
1) Those of you calling for Chuck Schumer to step down as Majority Leader are being really stupid. We don't know what's currently going on behind the scenes, which is where 95% of politics takes place. We don't know what results Schumer will get on a voting rights bill.
2) We do know that by calling for Schumer's head in the middle of a legislative battle, YOU'RE giving up on the voting rights bill, while Schumer and the Democrats are still fighting to win. That makes YOU the problem. YOU are sabotaging your own side, just to fulfill your rage.
3) Do you really think Chuck Schumer is just refusing to wave a magic wand, and that some other Democratic Senator would step in as Majority Leader right now and wave that magic wand? Is that really your childlike simplistic perception of how politics works?
Read 6 tweets
7 Jun
I've said all along that Trump would lose the election (which he did) and then he'd go to prison (he's currently being indicted). So I was right all along.

Now these trolls are pretending that I was always saying Trump would go to prison THAT SAME DAY. Bunch of silly clowns 🤡
Yeah that's it, I was really predicting that Trump would going to be dragged out of the White House and arrested the same day as my tweet 😆 No one is stupid enough to believe that's what I meant, right? Please tell me no one has a negative IQ like that 🤪 The stupid just burns.
Why was I saying all along that Trump would end up in prison? Because the Manhattan DA has been in the process of criminally indicting for financial crimes him since late 2019 (widely documented). So it was always a given that if he lost the election, New York would arrest him.
Read 8 tweets
7 Jun
95% of politics takes place behind closed doors.

When politicians (of either party) speak publicly, it’s just posturing.

You can’t take what they say as fact.

Political pundits never acknowledge this.

So most people have a fictional understanding of the political process.
The Democrats really are fighting to the death for you. The republicans really are fighting to the death for themselves. No, the two parties are not conspiring with each other. Don’t misunderstand my tweet. But almost NONE of politics takes place in public. Doesn’t work that way.
Accordingly, political battles are basically never won by stomping your feet, speaking in absolutes, or immediately making the “boldest” move you can think of. That stuff is actually how you lose a political battle.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jun
The internet: something is wrong with Trump’s pants, can’t figure out what.

Snopes: “The internet says Trump’s pants were on backward, we rate this as False.”

The internet: “That’s not even what we said…”

People who still believe Snopes: “Shh, the mighty Snopes has spoken.”
The internet floated numerous potential theories: he had a diaper on underneath. They were special pants to accommodate a diaper. He has no one to iron his pants anymore. He gained weight and stretched his pants out. They were on backward.
Snopes took the one theory that could be proven false, acted like it was the only theory presented, and ignored all the others. Which is an ugly way of bending the truth for a site that’s supposed to determine the truth. Yet snopes pulls this all the time, usually worse.
Read 6 tweets

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