If me, or other traders don't say up or down because we want to wait for more certainty. This is why.
In the current pattern it's a gamble which way price may go first. Even though you might have a prefrered bias, it's best to wait for a breakout and THEN enter.
You wait for the probabilities to be in your favor before entering the trade.
Both longs and shorts are a bad risk/reward ratio from where we are right now seeing it could literally go either way or you can get a sharper entry in at a better price.
As can be seen by the example, if we simply wait for a breakout to either side, we can get a proper long or short in with a R:R of over 2.5.
If we have then calculated the probability correctly, this trade should net us a profit in the long run.
There's still people that think they are funny, or simply don't know any better, and say: "So Up or Down? Good analysis."
This only shows you have no idea how trading works.
I will use this thread as a reply to those people from now on. 😄
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Updated the Wyckoff schematic with how the chart would look if we were to go for a spring.
1/15
Starting off with: Yes, I know these ranges often take longer than just a few weeks and that a 4H accumulation/distribution is quite a low timeframe.
But I do believe that these ranges will take as long as necessary for the people doing the accumulation or distribution.
2/15
If supply would be dried up and the composite man thinks he has sufficient control of the supply within the range, there is no need to exhaust the supply more. It will likely only cost him more than he gets back.
The "Elon fucked us over" narrative is back in full force.
Think to yourself: "Was that tweet really that important to make price dump over 6%?"
It was mostly just a meme. Elon complaining about $BTC's environmental issues and Tesla not accepting BTC was the actual news.
1/x
Those announcements happened over a week ago.
Half of the people blaming Elon today, don't even seem to know what is said. They just heard/read somewhere that the price dumped again because of Elon and didn't even bother to find out what he actually said.
2/x
Besides, the harm in the chart was already done. We closed below the daily resistance and then started falling after that. Elon's tweet was over an hour after that.
Failed to close above the $39.2K daily level I mentioned yesterday and then dumped below the breakout point of the pennant as well.
Back to the mid range which held for now.
After this throwback to the mid range I'm short term neutral now. Fundings are going up which is generally bearish but we are still above the mid range which is good.
If we lose the mid range we'll likely visit the bottom yellow trendline.
If price were to also lose that trendline I think there is a high probability we do go for the $30K lows. We'll have to see how price reacts there.
This is still quite far out though but good to have a plan ahead of time.
$BTC Funding is moving more into the negative as we're moving up. The majority of this is likely caused by people short hedging their spot holdings as we're coming close to a big resistance zone, which would make sense.
1/5
The thing is, if there's really a lot of people piling into shorts at around the same level. Price tends to just blast through the resistance to take out all these shorts before possibly reversing afterwards.
2/5
So yes, hedging makes sense if you want to play it safe in my opinion but be aware that price may extend a lot longer than you initially anticipate.
Mainly due to a big short squeeze which could be sustained for a while if people keep trying to short.
3/5
$BTC.D had a big bounce when BTC dropped but is still failing to see continuation which is good for alts relative to BTC.
If it wants to continue up, and not go down further, it should bounce here and make it's way towards 50%.
1/4
The current correlation between $ALTS and $BTC seems to be that whenever BTC moves up, so do ALT/BTC pairs and vice versa.
This correlation is often the case after a correction and usually ends whenever BTC starts making big moves towards the upside towards ATH area's.
2/4
When that happens, BTC tends to move up quickly and leave ALT/BTC pairs behind seeing all the attention is on BTC and people don't need alts to get good gains.
This means that IF BTC were to grind up slowly, we could very well see alts continue to do well relative to BTC.
3/4
I'm also aware that I could be wrong and will be happy to accept the fact. This mindset makes me able to flip bias quickly without being stubborn and staying on the losing side for too long.