Thread by @DaanCrypto

$BTC Thoughts On The Market + Current Range.

Updated the Wyckoff schematic with how the chart would look if we were to go for a spring.

1/15

Starting off with: Yes, I know these ranges often take longer than just a few weeks and that a 4H accumulation/distribution is quite a low timeframe.

But I do believe that these ranges will take as long as necessary for the people doing the accumulation or distribution.

2/15

If supply would be dried up and the composite man thinks he has sufficient control of the supply within the range, there is no need to exhaust the supply more. It will likely only cost him more than he gets back.

That's usually when the range resolves.

3/15

We'll have to see IF we get to $30K, but if we do you are prepared for what's to come.

If BTC breaks below and isn't able to get back above, that should be seen as bearish.

If BTC breaks below and then bounces up quickly like the doodle, that'd be positive for the bulls.

4/15

Initially, I thought the chances of us going down to $30K again were slim because:

1. The initial dump to $30K was caused by A LOT of long liquidations, it would be hard to get that selling momentum without all these liquidations. And longs are still mostly wiped out.

5/15

2. Many people seem to be waiting for $30K or even lower to re-enter.

Often, these levels get front-ran so people are left behind. This is still possible of course, we'll have to be patient and see what's going to happen.

6/15

One thing to note is that this latest dump saw a slight uptick in volume compared to the week before that. That's not ideally what you want to see when thinking about accumulation. This means there is still quite a bit of supply around these levels.

7/15

This does likely imply that there is also still plenty of supply to be taken by a move below $30K. That's why I think the spring has a higher probability of occuring now, compared to a few days ago.

In the end, $30K will be telling.

8/15

The chart below is a very possible scenario and when zooming out, wouldn't be weird at all.

We've had a +1550% run up in a little over a year.

A move to the golden zone fib level and then bouncing quickly, would still be okay for continuation later on in my eyes.

9/15

I'd strongly recommend NOT playing around with leverage too much seeing you're likely going to get chopped up by this range.

This is what happens to most people and how you can lose a lot of your stack with price barely moving in the end.

10/15

Until we reach $30K or break out of the range at $43K+, I'm just sitting tight in my spot holdings. Some $BTC, some $alts. Not trading much until we get more clarity to either side.

11/15

I do still think we'll see a similar cycle as 2013. Where we saw two big tops, a big correction (mini bear market) inbetween and then a second run up a few months later.

I think that because of the macro environment which should theoretically still favor assets like $BTC.

12/15

Inflation is high, Interest rates are low, stocks at all time highs and $BTC is something that's definitely on everyone's radar now.

We even see countries like El Salvador and possibly Paraguay going the Bitcoin way.

13/15

These countries are the pioneers and I expect this to have a ripple-effect over the next few months, years and decades.

Especially poorer countries can benefit tremendously from this technology.

It won't just stop here.

14/15

I hope this has helped some of you that are still in doubt on what to do.

All I can do is write down my own thoughts and many of you seem to appreciate that, so I'll keep doing just that.

Thank you for all the continuous support and have an amazing day!😄👍

15/15