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Aaron Astor Profile picture
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7 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Brilliant. Let's make sure all Texans know about Section 9 of the Republic of Texas Constitution passed in 1836. Note that slavery had been outlawed in 1821. Here's the text:
Section 9 is in the "General Provisions" section of the 1836 constitution if you want to read more about the founding document of the Republic of Texas. tarlton.law.utexas.edu/c.php?g=815580…
In all seriousness, if this effort leads to a more thorough understanding of how the 1836 Texas Republic reintroduced slavery into the former Mexican province, it will be worth it.
My mistake above. It was 1829, not 1821, that Mexican President Guerrero declared the end of slavery (applied to Texas in 1830). texasmonthly.com/being-texan/ho…

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Aaron Astor Profile picture
8 Jun
If you're trying to calculate national herd immunity at this point, I think we are at ~76%. 52% with a first vax dose + 32% previously infected (based on Youyang Gu's Feb estimate). Assume ~52% of infected were also vaccinated, that's 52+17=69%. But then add 7 for under 12s->76%.
Assumptions and caveats:
1) Under 12s very rarely transmit, which is why I'm backing them out of the analysis.
2) Same ratio of vaxxed among previously infected and not infected
3) Counting just "first dose" jumps the gun a bit, but one dose still confers lots of protection.
4) Stronger variants like Delta/B.1.617.2 will probably change the "one dose" figure. But that 42% fully vaxxed number should reach the partial vax number in a few weeks, and 2 doses work well on Delta.
5) Major regional disparities
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
8 Jun
After watching Dallas Baptist University baseball come back and defeat Oregon State, I went down the rabbit hole of exploring the architecture of Baptist churches. The columns always stand out. And the steeple is designed to resemble the first Baptist church in Rhode Island.
Here are "First Baptist" Churches in Shreveport, LA; Maryville, TN; Gainesville, GA; and Tallahassee, FL. Similar architecture - columns and that Roger Williams/Rhode Island Baptist steeple.
@MarlinCurnutt - You've taken folks up to the Roger Williams-founded church. Is the architecture similar to many Baptist churches?
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
7 Jun
I can think of 4 reasons previous covid infections are not discussed much. But none of those reasons are sufficient to discount natural immunity.
1) Unsure abt variants & reinfection
2) Unsure abt duration of immunity
3) Don't know who was infected
4) Could confuse vax messaging
On 1), there is some evidence that P.1 and B.1351 reinfect more than B.1.1.7 or Wild. B.1.671.2 is unclear. But reports of reinfections are still somewhat rare outside Brazil and South Africa, so it's not clear that current variants pose major vulnerability threat here.
On 2), there has been some good news about longer duration immunity, esp. B cells. nytimes.com/2021/05/26/hea…
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
7 Jun
This isn't the first time the ACLU is riven with internal dissent over progressivism v. free speech. The ACLU lost major financial support during the 1978 Nazi march issue in Skokie, IL. It didn't really recover until G.H.W. Bush mocked Dukakis as a "card-carrying member."
The ACLU was right to defend the marchers in 1978 and it needs to defend the free speech rights of similarly awful groups today. It is what makes the ACLU the ACLU. Remember that the landmark SCOTUS Brandenburg v. Ohio (1969) free speech case was about neo-Nazis.
But it is not surprising at all that there is serious internal pressure against defending 1A rights for far-right group. ACLU's membership has long been a nexus of politically liberal and civil libertarian, and those two are occasionally in direct conflict.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
3 Jun
I've suspected Sinopharm is a dud for a while now. Looks like the countries that relied on it are feeling the same. It apparently does limit severe symptoms, which is important. But it hasn't limited viral spread at all like the other vaccines have. washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/…
These are the countries that have relied on Sinopharm.
And here is UAE.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
2 Jun
Under-rated point about educational polarization. The 2010 Republican victory (as well as 2014) was powered by a GOP that still dominated among college-educated voters...who turn out more regularly. Increasingly pro-Dem college-educated voters will help w/ Dem turnout in 2022.
To an extent, we already saw this play out in the Georgia Senate special election. The GOP turnout drop (with Trump not on the ballot) was overwhelmingly in pro-GOP counties with very low college education levels.
Of course, it matters who is actually contesting these seats. Some Dem candidates have more appeal to college-educated voters than others. And some GOP candidates are able to hold on to college-educated voters better than others.
Read 6 tweets

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