1/ Macro thesis on BTC & ETH

During @UpOnlyTV with @CryptoCobain @ledgerstatus @Sicarious_ @mattysino, Matty and I got into a debate, I am writing this thread to clarify my Macro thesis.

In my view the only way out of current debt levels is inflation = bullish for BTC & ETH.
2/ The Debt/GDP ratio in the US has skyrocketed to new all-time highs (~130%), the last time it at these levels was WW2. We peaked in 1946 and quickly de-levered.

This raises two questions 1) Why is Debt to GDP important? 2) How did de-lever so quickly last time?
3/ The Debt/GDP ratio is important as it shows the ability for the country issuing debt to pay it back. We have seen creditors get concerned about the US ability to pay its debts in real terms.

Looking back to 2014 when foreign central banks stopped buying US debt on net.
4/ When foreign CB's stopped/slowed their UST purchases it left a lot of pressure on the FED and the US banking system to absorb US deficits.

Deficit's were further exaggerated by COVID and the FED + US banks have bought 85% of treasuries issued since March of 2020.
5/ This helps to illustrate the lack of foreign demand for US treasuries and the ballooning size of US debt.

US debt demand was once largely driven by foreign creditors but now is left almost entirely to the FED and the US banking system. Indicating worries around Inflation.
6/ The US is in a critical spot now where they have two options, default on their debt (extremely unlikely) or inflate it away reducing the REAL value of their obligations.

Some may ask “Well can’t the government just spend less and get their debt under control that way?”
7/ This was still an option a few years ago but the situation since then has become irreversible.

US Gov tax receipts (revenues) are less than their debt servicing cost + recurring expenditures so at this point they are issuing more debt just to SERVICE their own liabilities.
8/ Further more, >20% of US GDP is already from Gov spending, if they tried to reduce this it would send a negative feedback loop through the economy.

Cut spending = lower GDP and less growth = less tax receipts = must issue even more debt to service existing liabilities.
9/ Look at the following clip where Michael Burry (Big Short) answers the question “When does the US become a Ponzi scheme?”

His answer: “When they start printing money to pay interest on their debt”.

Well Dr. Burry we have arrived.

10/ We also have an IMF working paper: “The Liquidation of Government Debt” which is essentially a guide to how the US will de-lever. It involves running the WW2 playbook. Below is the abstract.

Financial Repression = “Savers earning returns below the rate of inflation”
11/ To get ~130% Debt to GDP down to 70% the US Gov would need to see nominal GDP growth of 20% for 5 years or 10% for 13 years.

With majority of the "nominal GDP" growth coming from inflation. Ex: Real GDP growth ~5% and inflation between 5-15% = Nominal GDP 10-20%
12/ Taking our World War 2 example, rates were capped at .5% on the short end and 2.5% on the long end of the curve.

Assuming the same circumstances this time a 10 year UST holder could be facing anywhere between 2.5 – 12.5% negative real rates (nominal yield – inflation).
13/ Up until 2020/21 Bitcoin was never seen as an asset among institutions but now it is, specifically with the narrative of inflation hedge + SoV.

The importance of this can not be overstated. Bitcoin is now being discussed as a legitimate alternative, see the below from $GLXY.
14/ There are over 45T worth of bonds in the US alone. What do you think happens when these bonds start to see negative real rates of 2.5-12.5% (in line with WW2 numbers)

Money will start flowing to "inflation hedges". Below is a great infographic to help illustrate my point.
15/ When these bonds start to run it will cause massive asset price appreciation in everything except bonds/cash as money scrambles to escape inflation.

Crypto has positioned itself perfectly with the store of value and digital scarcity narrative.
16/ As I said on @UpOnlyTV when this inflation kicks in it will be like trying to fit a pool (bonds & cash) inside of a water bottle (BTC).

I remain very bullish and believe this is a mid cycle correction, we are in the largest global deleveraging event since WW2 (70yrs ago).
17/ Clarifying my response to @mattysino when he told me the yield curve says I'm wrong.

My response was the fact that the FED has been artificially keeping these rates low via QE at the pace of $80b a month.
18/ I understand what @mattysino was saying, the bond market does not seem to be signaling inflation.

But when we look under the hood the FED is doing 80b a month in QE, 4x more then they were in 2019 to keep rates at the same level. The FED is muting the bond market.
19/ Hope this clears up the macro thesis, @mattysino I will take you up on a friendly bet that we will see inflation in the US >7.5% at some point over the next 4 years.

*Not financial advice, DYOR*
Readings:
6/home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
9/ IMF paper imf.org/external/pubs/…
13/ Galaxy Digital Investor Presentation
14/visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-wor…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Flood Capital

Flood Capital Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @FloodCapital

9 Jun
1/ Lido Finance Investment Thesis Update:

@LidoFinance continues to impress me. The creation of liquid staking derivatives across top layer 1’s and dApps is a massive untapped market.

Recently a proposal for $SOL was passed and one for $AAVE is in the works!
2/ Since our last thread (40 days ago) ETH in Lido has increased from 250,000 to 460,000! Growing stETH by 75% in May alone.

If stETH were to grow at even 1/4th this pace (19% MoM) for the rest of the year, we would see ~1.3m stETH by December which is ~1.2% of all ETH. Image
3/ Currently there are proposals on AAVE and Maker to integrate stETH as collateral.

If integrated this would increase stETH flows significantly. Assuming the stETH/ETH peg can maintain itself then stETH is simply a better form of collateral.
Read 22 tweets
3 Jun
1/ Thread on the macro cycle and crypto interest rates.

Crypto interest rates are set by the market and self-correct, facilitating an anti-fragile digital economy.
Contrast this with centralized interest rates that have created an extremely sensitive system drowning in debt.
2/ Interest rates in crypto will eventually approach the staking rate of top L1 blockchains. I will be using the mechanics behind ETH staking as a reference (post EIP-1559 and Merge).

The ETH staking rate is generated in 2 components:
1) Block Rewards
2) Fees (Economic Activity)
3/ Firstly, block rewards will be the stable portion of the staking rate that provide a base rate/interest rate floor.

It is important to have this base issuance to secure the network over time and provide a minimum rate for lenders.
Read 20 tweets
6 May
1/ Thread on Anchor $ANC

Anchor is a savings platform that leverages liquid staking derivatives to provide a more stable and attractive yield then other lending/borrowing services available in DeFi.

Let’s explore how Anchor's 20% APY is made possible.
2/ Anchor can achieve this through leveraging liquid staking derivatives. The only collateral available on Anchor right now is bLuna, bLuna is a liquid form of staked Luna.

bLuna and Luna are pegged 1:1, staking rewards are paid out it in UST to the bLuna holder.
3/ bLuna is liquid and still accrues staking rewards, increasing capital efficiency substantially as it can now be freely traded and used in Anchor.

Anchor plans to integrate more collateral options with the release of Col-5. Including stETH, bDot, BAtom, and bSol.
Read 25 tweets
29 Apr
1/ Thread on @LidoFinance and liquid staking derivatives

Lido is at the forefront of liquid staking derivatives on both Ethereum $ETH and Terra $LUNA.

Liquid staking derivatives will be key infrastructure for increasing the capital efficiency of PoS assets within DeFi.
2/ Liquid staking derivative tokens currently have two different models.

1. stETH rebases everyday to reflect the underlying staked balance

2. bLuna is pegged 1:1 with Luna, it pays out UST equivalent of the staking rewards.

These derivatives can now be freely traded.
3/ This greatly improves capital efficiency & liquidity for all stakable assets.

It allows previously locked up capital only earning a staking reward to be used in various DeFi protocols, increasing its yield and productivity.

Take bLuna and Anchor as an example.
Read 23 tweets
26 Apr
1/ Thread on the Terra $LUNA ecosystem.

Imagine if every time USDT, USDC, DAI or any other ETH based stable coin was minted it required an equal amount burned in ETH?

Welcome to LUNA’s tokenomics, a fascinating design that has burnt >100m (~22%) Luna over the past 3 months.
2/ 1$ worth of UST minted equals $1 worth of Luna burned.

So let’s try to contextualize UST demand and the 100m Luna we have burned over the past few months.

Check out @SmartStake for the awesome dashboard.
3/ Terra is a PoS layer 1 that currently has 2 main protocols.

A savings account through Anchor $ANC (20% fixed yield) and an investment account through Mirror $MIR (synthetic equities).

I will write about $MIR and $ANC in a separate thread for now we will focus on $UST.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(