quick reminder that the whole "look, abortion rates are naturally declining anyways!" story is increasingly wrong as medical abortions proliferate, and that abortions as a share of abortions + births have been rising for a few years, and early data suggests 2020 rose too!
also, add this to the stack of evidence showing that all the papers suggesting that COVID would lead to some huge decline in family planning service delivery were wrong
another turnaround....

border apprehensions have reached levels not seen since the Bush Administration!
here it is as the monthly average for rolling 12 month periods. not quite as high relatively speaking but still pretty striking!

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More from @lymanstoneky

9 Jun
Ran across this review for the first time today. It's very good. Covers a ton of papers I missed (but also misses several I found). ssb.brage.unit.no/ssb-xmlui/hand…
They don't quite as precisely estimate effects as I try to do (which is reasonable since doing so is very hard). However, I concur with their broad findings:
1) Parental leave does NOT boost fertility much
2) Childcare does boost fertility
3) Direct cash transfers do boost fertility
4) The primary reason to prefer one or the other is social preferences around maternal employment, not effect size, significance, or cost-effectiveness
Read 8 tweets
9 Jun
The story of the international order after the fall of communism goes like this:

Bush Sr. and Clinton attempted to lead the charge of a new international rules-based order friendly to the extension of democracy and liberalism. They succeeded to a shocking extent...
.... thanks to the surprising extent to which Russia turned inwards and had weak and compliant leaders, and China attempted to make amends post-1989 alongside an extremely amicable role played by capital....
Several early crises tested this symptom, such as Gulf I and the breakup of Yugoslavia. Overall, the nascent political order performed its intended function passably well, and it appeared that many regimes with motives to oppose this order might be induced to cooperate.
Read 56 tweets
9 Jun
the clip got tweeted by lijian zhao

this is how serious and adult china's foreign ministry is: that a youtube debate with <30k views draws a response from the spokesman for the foreign ministry
anyways, for those curious in the debate, it's stupidly long but here it is:

I think on the actual topic we were debating (is China a threat to world peace), I won rather handily. But you can decide for yourself.
also it's funny to me that across three years of his youtube career, the debate with me remains carl zha's most watched video at 26k views.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
So @familyunequal is obviously in the right here, ie it should be possible for adults in unequal positions to have friendships...

... but I think *should be* misses that the rising cultural norms around power and position make that view very aspirational!
Two well intentioned people both behaving ethically and cordially can nonetheless have the well of friendship poisoned by norms that demand that they interpret every adverse incident as a slight or act of aggression, and treat every difference as a power or position play.
To the extent that this reading of social life is coming to predominate, the friendships we *should* be able to maintain may not always be the ones we *can* maintain.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
dude sets up a bacon-sandwich stand in front of a synagogue with a sign that says, "sabbath-day sales go to Fatah!"

then is like

im not antisemitic it's just marketing, and besides anti-zionism isnt antisemitism
i chose fatah because they're not violent and it's not plausibly directly a bad thing to support them and reasonable people could absolutely believe its a good thing, so it's a better analogy for e.g. LGBTQ groups than hamas, for those curious
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
This is a great article about anti-vaxxers by @l_e_whyte who patiently put up with a ton of crap to get the article written.

Short version:

MLM is destroying America.
publicintegrity.org/health/coronav…
Also, I just..... i find the bit where the creepy and violent anti-vax people ask how @l_e_whyte will ever face God sort of a self-own on their part in theological terms.
Okay now my trademark Lyman Take:

The rise of these conspiracies through influencer/alternative income jobs is basically driven by the fact a ton of people (especially older educated folks and moms) desperately want flexible part-time and highly people-focused work.
Read 6 tweets

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