Thread by @ThyConsigliori

8 June 2021 #DefeatMcAuliffeNow & #FairfaxForVA

Pasquale’s Failure Analysis & Final Instalment

With the results in and McAuliffe the big winner at 62%, I don't mind sharing that I am upset about the outcome. There is, however, much to learn.

results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/20…

2) Before tackling the lessons of the failure, I feel the need to review past work as context. I'll skip over Election 2020, and the mid-terms of 2018 as each their own special cases. But two races in 2016 are directly pertinent. Yesterday's primary makes the 3rd in that line.

3) The first campaign I volunteered to serve was Wisconsin District 1's 2016 Republican primary. I worked on behalf of Paul Nehlen, who lost to Paul Ryan. Truth is, I supported Nehlen in order to stop Ryan and we failed terribly. Interestingly, Ryan took 60% of the vote.

4) We'll come back to that failure shortly. The next campaign I served was Trump's 2016 victory. I had the honor of, by the data, calling Trump's win a full 3 weeks before anyone else on the team. We'll also come back to that outcome in a moment.

5) We lost Nehlen's race for two primary reasons, I believe. The first was the weakness to the point of gross lying by our principal. He lied about his position in the race and many of us serving believed his lies, only to be crushed by the outcome.

6) The second reason we lost was a complete lack of strategic and tactical leadership. The leadership team was at odds with each other. I have to imagine some of them knew about the lying, but did nothing to address it. The split on that team become patently clear by the end.

7) The Trump campaign was absolutely the opposite, and its leadership cohesion was a critical aspect in winning. I did all my work in direct connection with General Flynn. He, Trump, and the inner circle were not a flawless team, but they were an incredible one.

8) I was not a member of the inner circle or a formal part of the campaign. But Flynn read every one of the hundreds of analyses and forwarded much of my work to the inner circle. Many times Trump and Flynn discussed my recommendations and made decisions regarding them.

9) It has been underreported that Trump was a tactical genius, improving everything he touched. He took the fight to Hillary and defeated her with extraordinary execution. Flynn and the rest of the team supported that but Trump won by being Trump...in execution.

10) That brings me to my first assessment of our failure to #DefeatMcAuliffeNow. You can see that, like fighting against Paul Ryan, it was a negative mission. I will NOT forswear negative missions going forward, but I will be exceedingly wary of them, and...

11) ...and, there really does have to be a positive mission at the same time. For instance, I am NOT an actual supporter of #FairfaxForVA. I knew almost nothing about him, and I was completely wrong to call that he'd be number two in the race. He came in 4th of 5.

12) The consolation prize I get to claim is that my number, 300,000 Virginia Republican votes, was virtually spot on to the necessity. That's the number McAuliffe did get and had we been able to rally Republicans, that would have been the needed amount, precisely.

13) I am happy to report that I am proud of that much. It was a better call than I realized, but completely unrealistic to imagine coming through in reality. So, a very good but not very helpful analysis, that. Still, there is a reason we have the term "consolation prize." Ha!

14) The next point I assess is a slight variation on the necessity of a positive mission to counterbalance a negative one. This is the mandate to judge the principal him- or herself. And more. There must be a direct line of influence with the principal.

15) In 2016, my first support for Trump was, in fact, a passionate, furious negative mission. I simply could NOT allow Hillary to win and have done nothing to stop her. This, however, rapidly became secondary as I wanted Trump to win for who he was, actually.

16) I judged Trump the most qualified candidate of our lives and dreamed of his victory positively. I have never spoken with Trump. But the time he and Flynn shared considering my work was the direct line required. A positive principal must be present. Didn't have that this time.

17) What's more, Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway and other members of the leadership were actively involved with their own special genius and I do treasure the honor of their having read and considered my work, also. It was an amazing team.

18) I do have to say a word about 2018 and 2020. As with #DefeatMcAuliffeNow, I was merely an outside analyst, writing for my readers during each. I always asked the question: what should people understand, now? Yet, there was no direct relationship to a positive principal.

19) In future work, I will never forget that lesson. In a moment, we'll dive into a single line of logistics and tactical analysis but first I have to say a positive word about the project in spite of the outcome. I am completely okay with being wrong, and glad I took a stand.

20) I would be ashamed of myself had I failed to find a position and work for it. McAuliffe is evil and needed to be opposed. That I don't have the reach to influence the outcome must be accepted. Still, for the failure, I happily stand behind the work.

defeatmcauliffenow.com

21) Now let's talk about logistics a little. I only learned yesterday that there are 2,584 precincts in our Commonwealth. For a strategy like #DefeatMcAuliffeNow to have a fighting chance, tactical leadership is required in each one. Now that's something to envision.

22) I may only hope that the Republican Party of Virginia is actually on top of that requirement in their mission to #WinWithGlenn. That, by the way, is their own hashtag, not one I have offered or analyzed, yet. My instinct is that we can do better than that but we'll see.

23) I'm still such a neophyte at the state and local levels that I'm not sure what these good souls are called. Are they Precinct Captains, perhaps Representatives or Delegates? I will clearly need to learn the infrastructure so I can assess its best use and direction.

24) Another underreported fact from 2016 was the size and mobilization of the veteran vote. 2012 saw only 12 million veterans vote. In 2016, that number was increased to 18 million. We took 85% of that vote. There could have been no victory without them.

25) In my work, I approached that group as a national whole. I never worked at the Precinct level with it. But we did analyze their concentration down to the city level and were able to plan rallies where the veterans lived in largest numbers for maximum impact.

26) Coming off the failure to #DefeatMcAuliffeNow, both general populations of influential voters, absolutely to include both veterans and active duty military, will need to be completed, and also integrated into a seamless flow of on the ground tactical leadership and execution.

27) In coming days and weeks between now and November, my research will turn to discovery of the Republican Party's integrated reach, and also of the Youngkin Campaign's alignment and force on the ground.

28) My last lesson is completely positive. It is a return to my reading list. My ultimate focus will be to find those few who will join me in active reading and execution. It was my reading that led me to this recent campaign and I will return to that reading immediately.

29) In fact, I do truly hope you'll join me, or at least consider it. Not just over at Telegram although I'm thrilled to invite you there. I believe - I'm not sure yet - that a schedule for Reading and Execution Teleconferences will most likely be required.

30) Do please be absolutely clear. We need you to step up in whatever way you can, to join the effort to save our Commonwealth and our Nation. We have to work hand in glove with the Republican Party. We have to awaken mind, heart, and soul for the mission.

Thread ends at #30.

I am going to try to take a few days off of my analytical work, but we'll see. In the meantime, you truly are needed over at our Telegram Discussion Group where we'll discuss your commitment to reading and action.

t.me/TheConsigliori