I’ve taken a look at Zenz’s new paper, “End the Dominance of the Uyghur Ethnic Group”: An Analysis of Beijing’s Population Optimization Strategy in Southern XJ. I have analysed his calculations and broadly get to the same numbers. This thread is a summary.
TLDR: Zenz makes predictions based on Central Government policies that do not exist against an extrapolation of possible growth rates from one region in XJ to show that, in the future, people may not be born when they may, in fact, have been born.
The absurdity of the main premise of this paper is mind-boggling. In order to generate more ‘Victims of Communism’, Zenz argues that between 2.6 and 4.5 million Uyhgur births will be prevented from happening, due to Chinese central government family planning policies, by 2040.
This is not without precedent for the group Zenz works for, the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, who may include those who could have been born under different circumstances in their, widely disputed, 100 million number.
Incidentally, VoC was created by a US Act of Congress and, 10 years ago, received 60k USD in funding. This has rapidly increased to 12 million in 2018, with most of the money not spent and kept as assets.
Looking at the main data table, from the ‘compared to 2017’ figure, we are starting out with an ethnic population in Southern XJ of 9.47 million. Zenz states that he is estimating the NGR for 2019 to be 2.0 and 2020 to be 1.0.
Thereafter it is based on his 5 scenarios (-5.0, -2.5, 0, +2.5, +5.0). He claims that certain local governments have ‘targets’ for establishing ideal growth rates ranging from -0.5 pm to -3.14 pm, although none of the source links in his paper are working.
Zenz, for no identified reason, assumes that 50k ethnic residents per year will be moved out of Southern XJ. Then he then adds these numbers back on, including the relevant NGR, so no need to take them off in the first place for the purposes of the total population.
The only reason to remove them is to affect the %age of Han in the region. Despite repeated drops in the Han population, Zenz assumes, again with no evidence, that 45k Han per year will permanently migrate to Southern XJ, again, in order to affect the % of the ethnic demographic.
So, taking into account these assumptions, Zenz arrives at his final numbers of what would happen in different scenarios, which broadly agree with my own calculations using his assumptions.
So let’s look at Zenz’s variables.
1. Annual Han in-migration: not relevant to the overall ethnic population and hence the overall conclusions
2. Han natural population growth: Despite the fact that Han and ethnic minorities in XJ have had the same family planning limits on them since 2017, Zenz assumes a constant per mille of 1.5 assuming most Han are part of XPCC. Again, not relevant to the overall ethnic population
3. Ethnic minority out-migration: not relevant to total populations.
4. Ethnic minority natural population growth: These are the 5 different scenarios rather randomly chosen
So if the data based on the assumptions is as calculated, the difference between the ‘potential’ ethnic minority population in Southern XJ by 2040 of 13.14 million runs between 2.6 and 4.5 million ‘unborn’ children.
So where did this 13.14 million figure come from?
Zenz uses data analysis from Research on Population Development in Ethnic Minority Areas in the Context of China’s Population Strategy Adjustment. mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1…
This, again, looks at possible future scenarios for the population in Southern XJ, but only looks at Hotan. Zenz has extrapolated this data across most of the region, and adjusted the number down by a random 30% to reach his 13.14 million number.
The paper referenced mainly highlights the potential problems of relaxing the family planning policies, leading to mass unemployment and strain on the education system as well as dangerous effects on the fragile oasis ecosystem of Hotan.
I can only assume that Zenz wants more people to be born, to then overrun the available resources, thus increasing the poverty rates which the central government has worked so hard to reduce. Oddly, the only solution to this would be forced labour transfer to other regions.
To summarise again: China could *potentially* be committing *genocide* over the next 20 years *if* it implements new policies restricting births from one particular ethnicity like it did to every Chinese ethnicity for the last 40 years (with harsher limits for Han).
Apologies, Zenz takes a different study from 2018 to get his projected 'non-interference' number. The 30% off thing was from the low projections of the 2020 study to get a number somewhat closer to the 2018 one. Not clear why he did this.

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More from @MyUKnumber4

7 Jun
This is possibly the most ridiculous thing I've seen here in a long time. A map showing very little correlation, no consideration of population density and no attempt to discuss the actual nature/reason of the protest. Correlation does not equal causation.
Reminds me of this... tylervigen.com/spurious-corre…
Apologies, I now have a link to a free version of the paper, where it has become clearer that an attempt at causal connection has been made. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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